Tallon Griekspoor vs. Denis Shapovalov prediction, odds, picks for ATP Chengdu Open 2026

Using innovative machine learning and statistical analysis, we have re-simulated the result of Thursday's Griekspoor-Shapovalov men's singles match, forming part of our tennis predictions coverage.

Our leading predictive model gives Shapovalov a 56% chance of beating Griekspoor at the ATP Chengdu Open tournament. Additionally, Shapovalov has a 53% chance of winning the first set. The simulations also show that the oddsmakers have got it right with the +1.5 games spread, with each player projected to have a 50-50 chance of covering, while the under 24.5 games has a 54% chance of hitting, according to our model.

Latest betting odds

We have sourced the most up-to-date betting odds in America for this match, which are listed here:

• Moneyline: Denis Shapovalov -144, Tallon Griekspoor +126
• First Set: Griekspoor +120, Shapovalov -152

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Moneyline: Griekspoor @ +126 via DraftKings
• First Set: Shapovalov @ -130 via DraftKings

According to our tennis best bets, the top play to make on this match is over 24.5 total games.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Game info & first serve details

The ATP Chengdu Open match between Tallon Griekspoor and Denis Shapovalov is scheduled to commence on Thursday at 1:00 AM ET.

• Who: Tallon Griekspoor vs. Denis Shapovalov
• Date: Thursday, September 24, 2026
• Approx. Time: 1:00 AM ET/10:00PM PT
• Tournament: ATP Chengdu, China Men's Singles 2026
• Round: Round of 32

All dates and times in this article are United States Eastern Time unless otherwise stated.

Conclusion

We predict Denis Shapovalov, with a 56% win probability, will likely beat Tallon Griekspoor at the ATP Chengdu Open tournament.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary Tennis prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.