Taylor Fritz vs. Mattia Bellucci prediction, odds, picks for US Open 2026

Taylor Fritz will take on Mattia Bellucci in the second round of the US Open Men's Singles 2026 on Thursday.

Dimers' proven tennis model projects Taylor Fritz as the most likely winner in this Fritz vs. Bellucci prediction.

This article offers an expanded analysis of Thursday's match, including best bets and picks.

Fritz vs. Bellucci prediction and odds

Using trusted machine learning and statistical analysis, we have simulated the outcome of Thursday's Fritz-Bellucci men's singles match, forming part of our tennis predictions coverage.

Our independent predictive model currently gives Fritz an 89% chance of beating Bellucci in the US Open 2026.

Additionally, Fritz has an 82% chance of winning the first set. The simulations also show Bellucci (+7.5) has a 53% chance of covering the games spread, while the under 34.5 games has a 55% chance of hitting, according to our model.

Latest betting odds

We have sourced the most up-to-date betting odds in America for this match, which are listed here:

• Moneyline: Mattia Bellucci +600, Taylor Fritz -877
• First Set: Fritz -500, Bellucci +350

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our probabilities against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Moneyline: Fritz @ -877 via DraftKings
• First Set: Bellucci @ -125 via DraftKings

According to our tennis best bets, the top play to make on this match is Taylor Fritz to win.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Game info & first serve details

The US Open 2026 match between Taylor Fritz and Mattia Bellucci is scheduled to begin on Thursday at 1:40 PM ET.

• Who: Taylor Fritz vs. Mattia Bellucci
• Date: Thursday, September 3, 2026
• Approx. Time: 1:40 PM ET/10:40AM PT
• Tournament: US Open Men's Singles 2026
• Round: Second round

All dates and times in this article are United States Eastern Time unless otherwise noted.

Conclusion

We predict Taylor Fritz, with an 89% win probability, will likely beat Mattia Bellucci at the US Open 2026.

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