Ball State vs. SMU prediction, odds, pick for Nov. 13, 2026

SMU is favored to beat Ball State at Moody Coliseum on Friday (9:00 PM ET), according to Dimers' men's college basketball model.

Our Ball State vs. SMU prediction gives the Cardinals a 96.5% chance of winning, but the latest odds suggest there's betting value on Ball State to cover at +21.5.

Ball State vs. SMU key predictions

• Predicted score: SMU 86-65 Ball State
• SMU win probability: 96.5%
• Ball State win probability: 3.5%
• Ball State +21.5 spread: 52.0% cover probability
• Over 150 points: 52.7% probability

Our men's college basketball predictions project each team's final score using offensive and defensive efficiency, recent performance, long-term trends, and matchup-specific factors.

We calculate win, spread, and total probabilities based on these projections and historical CBB scoring patterns, then compare them with the latest odds to find betting value.

Ball State vs. SMU odds

These are the best available prices across the moneyline, spread, and total points markets we track.

• Ball State moneyline: +2200 (FanDuel)
• SMU moneyline: -6502 (DraftKings)
• Ball State +21.5: -102 (FanDuel)
• SMU -21.5: -120 (FanDuel)
• Over 150 points: -110 (Caesars Sportsbook)
• Under 150 points: -110 (Caesars Sportsbook)

Odds are subject to change and may vary by location.

Ball State vs. SMU pick: Ball State +21.5 (-102)

Our model makes SMU the likelier winner, but our best value bet is the Mustangs to cover the +21.5 spread at -102 on FanDuel.

Those odds give Ball State an implied cover probability of 50.5%, while our model puts it at 52.0%.

That's a 1.5% edge, the biggest across the moneyline, spread, and total points markets.

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Ball State vs. SMU game details

• Matchup: Ball State Cardinals vs. SMU Mustangs
• Date: Friday, November 13, 2026
• Time: 9:00 PM ET
• Venue: Moody Coliseum

About this prediction

This preview uses predictions from our men's college basketball models, presented through a template written by our editorial team. Matchup details fill in automatically.

Predictions are estimates, not guarantees, and can change as new information comes in, such as injury news or lineup changes. Learn how our predictions work.

Dimers encourages responsible gambling.