Toledo vs. Arkansas State prediction, odds, pick for Nov. 2, 2026

Arkansas State is favored to beat Toledo at First National Bank Arena on Monday (8:00 PM ET), according to Dimers' men's college basketball model.

Our Toledo vs. Arkansas State prediction gives Arkansas State a 61.1% chance of winning, while the latest odds suggest the best betting value is on the under 165.5 points.

Toledo vs. Arkansas State key predictions

• Predicted score: Arkansas State 82-78 Toledo
• Arkansas State win probability: 61.1%
• Toledo win probability: 38.9%
• Toledo +3.5 spread: 51.0% cover probability
• Under 165.5 points: 53.0% probability

Our men's college basketball predictions project each team's final score using offensive and defensive efficiency, recent performance, long-term trends, and matchup-specific factors.

We calculate win, spread, and total probabilities based on these projections and historical CBB scoring patterns, then compare them with the latest odds to find betting value.

Toledo vs. Arkansas State odds

Here are the best available odds across the moneyline, spread, and total points markets we track.

• Toledo moneyline: +145 (DraftKings)
• Arkansas State moneyline: -156 (FanDuel)
• Toledo +3.5: -108 (DraftKings)
• Arkansas State -3.5: -105 (FanDuel)
• Over 165.5 points: -110 (Caesars Sportsbook)
• Under 165.5 points: -109 (BetRivers)

Odds are subject to change and may vary by location.

Toledo vs. Arkansas State pick: Under 165.5 (-109)

Our model makes Arkansas State the likelier winner, but our best value bet is the under 165.5 total points at -109 on BetRivers.

Those odds give the under an implied probability of 52.2%, while our model puts it at 53.0%.

That's a 0.9% edge (accounting for rounding), the largest across the moneyline, spread, and total points markets for this game.

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Toledo vs. Arkansas State game details

• Matchup: Toledo Rockets vs. Arkansas State Red Wolves
• Date: Monday, November 2, 2026
• Time: 8:00 PM ET
• Venue: First National Bank Arena

About this prediction

This preview uses predictions from our men's college basketball models, presented through a template written by our editorial team. Matchup details fill in automatically.

Predictions are estimates, not guarantees, and can change as new information comes in, such as injury news or lineup changes. Learn how our predictions work.

Dimers encourages responsible gambling.