Sep 6, 2026
College football player props today: Week 1 Sunday best props include Brody Foley [9/6/2026]
Read Article Arkansas State vs. Memphis prediction: Why Memphis is favored to win in college football Week 1 [2026]
Updated: | First published:
Add Dimers on Google 
Written by Mac Douglass, Senior Editor
Dimers' simulation model projects a 71.9% win probability for Memphis at Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium.
Memphis and Arkansas State will meet in Week 1 college football action at Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium on Saturday, commencing at 7:00 PM ET.
Dimers' advanced college football model projects Memphis as the most likely winner in this Arkansas State vs. Memphis prediction.
This article offers further insights into Saturday's matchup, including an expanded look at the predicted score, best bets and picks, backed by the same system that has dominated college football and NFL betting markets across multiple seasons.
Arkansas State vs. Memphis prediction and odds
Using powerful machine learning and data analysis, we have simulated the result of Arkansas State vs. Memphis, forming part of our college football predictions coverage.
Our famous predictive model gives Memphis a 71.9% chance of beating Arkansas State. Our predicted final score has Memphis winning 30-21.
According to our model, Arkansas State (+10.5) has a 54.4% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 55.5 points has a 60.6% chance of staying under.
Latest betting odds
We have researched the best college football odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
- Spread: Arkansas State +10.5 (-105) / Memphis -10.5 (-108)
- Moneyline: Arkansas State +360, Memphis -325
- Total: Over/Under 55.5 (-110/-110)
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Model picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
- Spread: Arkansas State +10.5 @ -105 via ESPN BET
- Moneyline: Arkansas State @ +360 via ESPN BET
- Total: Under 55.5 @ -110 via BetMGM
According to our college football best bets, the top play to make on this game is Under 55.5 total points.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.
Game info & kickoff details
Saturday's college football action between Memphis and Arkansas State at Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium is scheduled to commence at 7:00 PM ET.
- Who: Arkansas State vs. Memphis
- Date: Saturday, September 5, 2026
- Time: 7:00 PM ET/4:00PM PT
- Venue: Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium
College football Week 1 promos
Make the most of Dimers' Arkansas State vs. Memphis predictions by exploring the Underdog Fantasy offfer below
Conclusion
We predict Memphis, with a 71.9% win probability, will likely beat Arkansas State in Saturday's college football matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Lock in for all of NFL & College Football. Every plan unlocks every model, tool and insight, only the billing term changes.
MOST FLEXIBLE
Monthly billed monthly
$29.99
Month to month Pay as you go RECOMMENDED
6 Months one payment
$99.99 $149.99
6 months $16.67 per month Save $79.95 · 44% Early bird price BEST VALUE
Annual first year
$149.99 $199.99
12 months $12.50 per month Save $209.89 · 58% Early bird price Every plan includes
Full site access
iOS & Android app
AI bet assistant
Unlimited picks & predictions
Unlimited best bets & props
Unlimited player projections
Private Discord community
Cancel or pause anytime
Mac Douglass specializes in NFL previews for the NFC South and NFC East, MLB best bets, Formula 1 race previews, and professional tennis insights. Combining predictive simulations and data-driven sports analysis, Mac provides in-depth content to elevate the betting experience for sports fans.
Advertiser disclosure
