Heisman Trophy odds, predictions and how to bet the top contenders in Week 9 of College Football

Last week, three of the top five Heisman contenders sat on a bye. This Saturday, all five are on the field, each taking their show on the road, and the race could look very different by Sunday morning.

Jeremiah Smith will catch passes from a new quarterback, Miami's Darian Mensah and Malachi Toney head to Chapel Hill, CJ Carr tries to get Notre Dame back on track against Navy, and Jesse Legree closes out the slate with a late-night kickoff in Fresno.

Using Dimers' college football predictions and best college football player props, here's our model recommends betting and trading on these players in Week 9.

Top 5 Heisman Trophy contenders' Week 9 schedule

Heisman prices via Polymarket as of October 28, 2026.

WR Jeremiah Smith, Ohio State

Game: Ohio State @ USC

This is a pivotal week for the Heisman favorite, who saw his price drop from 51 cents to just 39 cents while on bye and with Malachi Toney going nuclear in Week 8.

Julian Sayin is out for several weeks with a shoulder injury, and true freshman Luke Fahey reportedly took about 80% of the first-team reps during the bye, though Ohio State has yet to name a starter against USC.

Smith himself admitted the chemistry will take time: "It's gonna take time to build that. Not one day; it's not that easy."

The Dimers model still finds value on him, with Smith over 93.5 receiving yards at 76.4% (23.2% edge), over 6.5 receptions at 67.3% (18.8% edge), to score a touchdown at 74.7% (14.7% edge) and 2+ touchdowns at 34.7% (14.7% edge, +400).

He leads the FBS with 52 catches, plus 984 yards and 12 touchdowns, and Dimers gives Ohio State a 68.0% win probability with a projected 28-23 win at the Coliseum.

But if Smith and his new quarterback don't connect in primetime, his price could drop even further.

QB Darian Mensah and WR Malachi Toney, Miami

Game: Miami Florida @ UNC

Miami's two Heisman contenders are coming off their best games of the season.

Mensah completed 31 of 37 passes for 387 yards and four touchdowns in a 52-23 win over Pittsburgh and through seven games, he is completing more than 80% of his passes with 22 touchdowns and one interception, leading Miami to 7-0 and the No. 1 ranking in the AP Top 25.

Toney set a Miami record in the same game with 16 catches for 194 yards and three touchdowns, including 12 catches, 159 yards and two scores in the first half alone. It was his second straight game with 10+ catches and his fifth 100-yard game.

Last week was the time to buy Toney, when he was +2800 at sportsbooks and around 5¢ on prediction markets, as he is now up to 19¢ on Polymarket and +325 at sportsbooks.

Dimers gives the Hurricanes an 84.8% win probability at Kenan Stadium and projects a 33-19 final, so Miami isn't on upset watch, but we do predict North Carolina keeping it closer than the line suggests, with a 53.5% probability to cover +14.5. 

As of publishing, Dimers' props show no value on either Mensah or Toney as of publishing, so this is a week to buy stock in their chances to win the Heisman as opposed to in-game betting.

QB CJ Carr, Notre Dame

Game: Notre Dame @ Navy

Carr needs a bounce-back after the 28-24 loss at BYU, where he went 27 of 49 for 261 yards and no touchdowns, and a passer rating below 100 for the first time in his college career.

He still has 1,721 passing yards, 19 total touchdowns and just one interception on the season for 6-1 Notre Dame. Navy is 2-5 and has lost the last four meetings by a combined 177-59.

Dimers finds no value in Notre Dame covering -28.5 (49.2%) or in the 56.5-point total, but it projects the Irish for 43 points in a 43-14 win, which points to a big day for Carr and the offense.

However, one thing to watch is Navy's option attack, which runs for 307.7 yards per game and can shorten the game and limit Notre Dame's possessions.

WR Jesse Legree, Oregon State

Game: Oregon State @ Fresno State

The best value on the board this week may belong to the longest shot.

Jesse Legree leads the nation in touchdowns, and the true freshman has scored multiple times in four straight games, including two three-touchdown performances.

Dimers sees value all the way up that same touchdown ladder: to score at 83.1% (5.8% edge, -340), 2+ touchdowns at 47.8% (7.8% edge, +150) and 3+ touchdowns at 17.5% (3.2% edge, +600).

We also project him for over 125.5 receiving yards at a 72.9% probability.

Oregon State comes off its bye with a 66.4% win probability and a projected 31-26 win at Fresno State, and with a 57.5-point total, the game that should give Legree plenty of chances in the late window.

Final takeaway

Smith and Legree are where Dimers finds prop value this week.

Smith's case rests on how quickly he connects with his new quarterback, while Legree's touchdown ladder offers upside on a Heisman longshot who may not close the gap in the awards race but could still put up big weekly numbers.

Mensah, Toney and Carr all have friendly spots, but carry no prop betting value in Week 9 as of publishing.

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