Oct 1, 2026
Western Kentucky vs. New Mexico State prediction favors New Mexico State to win in college football Week 5 [2026]
Read Article Polymarket "Trade of the Day" for College Football Week 5 finds value in Kentucky vs. South Carolina
First published:
Written by Greg Waddell, Creative Strategist
Reviewed by Nick Slade
After a 4-1 start to the season, see where the Dimers model is finding an edge for trading college football on Polymarket in Week 5.
Week 5 of college football is here, with college football predictions data from Dimers to back up every move you make from Thursday's kickoff through the all-day Saturday slate, whether making long-term championship picks or trading college football on prediction markets.
Prediction markets are on the rise and with more capital moving through platforms like Polymarket than ever before, this is shaping up to be the most-traded college football season yet.
Dimers' "Trade of the Day" is off to a 4-1 start to the season and we're back for another on Saturday, October 3 in Kentucky vs. South Carolina.
To maximize today's trade value on Polymarket, sign up with the invite code "DIMERS" to get a $50 trading bonus after your initial $10 deposit.
Why trade on Kentucky vs. South Carolina in Week 5
Few Week 5 matchups feature two teams headed in more opposite directions than Kentucky and South Carolina, who meet Saturday afternoon at Williams-Brice Stadium.
Just a few years ago, LaNorris Sellers and the Gamecocks were one of the darlings of the sport, and Sellers was one of the most enjoyable players in the country to root for.
Kentucky has completely righted the ship under first-year coach Will Stein, and now, this is a team that suddenly has real aspirations of being in the College Football Playoff picture. The Wildcats held their own with Alabama for two and a half quarters and have picked up impressive wins in each of the last two weeks.
South Carolina has struggled against ranked opponents. Since the start of last season, Sellers and the Gamecocks are 0-7 outright against Top 25 teams.
Kentucky arguably has the better coach, the better locker room and the better players, but what does the data say about this matchup?
Week 5 Trade of the Day: Kentucky +2.5 vs. South Carolina
- Dimers probability: 52.5%
- Polymarket trading price: 50%
- Edge on Polymarket: 2.5%
South Carolina is favored to win this matchup with Kentucky, but the Dimers model identifies the Wildcats as undervalued.
While the Gamecocks are the slight favorite to win outright, they're priced higher than that. Their -148 moneyline implies a win probability of about 59.7%, which is almost four points above our model's 56%.
In the spread market, our model gives Kentucky a 52.5% chance of covering +2.5, and on Polymarket the Wildcats are trading at 50%, so we have a 2.5% edge over the market price.
Kentucky covers if it wins outright or loses by two or fewer, and our predicted final score of South Carolina 28, Kentucky 27 keeps the Wildcats inside that number, and that makes the Wildcats with the points our trade of the week.
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To give you the most accurate and helpful information, this article has been reviewed and edited by Nick Slade through our fact-checking process.
Greg Waddell is a self-proclaimed college basketball addict, with an affinity for parlays and fantasy football trades. He's based in Michigan, where he hasn't seen one of his professional sports teams win anything of any importance since he was in diapers.
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