Valencia vs. Athletic Bilbao prediction, odds, La Liga picks [10/17/2026]

Using powerful machine learning and data, we have re-simulated the outcome of Saturday's La Liga match between Valencia and Athletic Bilbao, forming part of our La Liga predictions coverage.

Our famous predictive model currently indicates a 30.7% chance of Valencia winning, a 42.0% chance for Athletic Bilbao, and a 27.2% chance of a draw. Additionally, the 2.5-goal over/under has a 56.3% chance of staying under., with a 51.0% probability of at least one team keeping a clean sheet.

Latest betting odds

We have sourced the best La Liga odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Moneyline: Athletic Bilbao +127, Valencia +250
• Total Goals: Over/Under 2.5 (+117/-122)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Moneyline: Valencia @ +250 via BetRivers
• Total Goals: Under 2.5 @ -122 via Novig

According to our La Liga best bets, the top play to make on this game is Valencia to win.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Correct score and BTTS projections

Here are the top three most likely final scores according to our model, with a 1-1 draw being the most probable:

• Valencia 1-1 Athletic Bilbao (12.9% probability)
• Valencia 0-1 Athletic Bilbao (11.8%)
• Valencia 1-0 Athletic Bilbao (9.7%)

When it comes to the both teams to score (BTTS) market, we project a 49.0% chance of both Valencia and Athletic Bilbao finding the net and a 51.0% chance that at least one doesn’t.

These predictions are based on each team's average score according to our machine learning model, meaning the most likely correct score can differ from our predicted winner.

Game info & kickoff details

Saturday's La Liga matchup between Valencia and Athletic Bilbao at Estadio de Mestalla is scheduled to start in the United States at 3:00 PM ET.

• Who: Valencia vs. Athletic Bilbao
• Date: Saturday, October 17, 2026
• Time: 3:00 PM ET/12:00PM PT
• Venue: Estadio de Mestalla

Conclusion

According to our computer model, Valencia has a 30.7% win probability on Saturday, Athletic Bilbao has a 42.0% win probability, and there is a 27.2% chance that the game will end in a draw.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary La Liga prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.