Toluca vs. Santos Laguna prediction, odds, Liga MX picks [9/20/2026]

Using trusted machine learning and data analysis, we have re-simulated the result of Sunday's Liga MX matchup between Toluca and Santos Laguna, forming part of our Liga MX predictions coverage.

Our leading predictive model currently indicates a 78.2% chance of Toluca winning, an 8.4% chance for Santos Laguna, and a 13.4% chance of a draw. Additionally, the over/under total of 2.5 goals has a 70.8% chance of going over., with a 53.6% probability that both teams find the net.

Latest betting odds

We have sourced the best Liga MX odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Moneyline: Santos Laguna +850, Toluca -390
• Total Goals: Over/Under 2.5 (-295/+230)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Moneyline: Toluca @ -390 via DraftKings
• Total Goals: Under 2.5 @ +230 via FanDuel

According to our Liga MX best bets, the top play to make on this game is Under 2.5 total goals.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Correct score and BTTS projections

Here are the top three most likely final scores according to our model, with a 2-0 Toluca win being the most probable:

• Toluca 2-0 Santos Laguna (10.2% probability)
• Toluca 3-0 Santos Laguna (9.6%)
• Toluca 2-1 Santos Laguna (8.6%)

When it comes to the both teams to score (BTTS) market, we project a 53.6% chance of both Toluca and Santos Laguna finding the net and a 46.4% chance that at least one doesn’t.

Game info & kickoff details

Sunday's Liga MX action between Toluca and Santos Laguna is scheduled to start at 8:00 PM ET.

• Who: Toluca vs. Santos Laguna
• Date: Sunday, September 20, 2026
• Time: 8:00 PM ET/5:00PM PT

Conclusion

According to our computer model, Toluca has a 78.2% win probability on Sunday, Santos Laguna has an 8.4% win probability, and there is a 13.4% chance that the game will end in a draw.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary Liga MX prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.