Juarez vs. Toluca Prediction, Picks and Odds

Dimers' prediction and analysis for the Juarez vs. Toluca Liga MX match on August 30, 2026 includes win probabilities and picks for the biggest betting markets. Get Dimers Pro for full access.
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LIGA MX
Juarez
0
4
Toluca
TolucaTOL
Score Summary
JuarezJUA
Helinho (10')
Soccer ball icon
J. Murillo (o.g.) (34')
Soccer ball icon
O. Virgen (73')
Soccer ball icon
F. Vinas (79')
Soccer ball icon
Live Probabilities
Win %
  • Toluca
    100.0%
  • Draw
    0.0%
  • Juarez
    0.0%
Win Probability
Match Timeline
  1. 81'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Juarez: J. Sigala replaces J. Rodriguez
  2. 81'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Juarez: Ricardinho replaces O. Estupinan
  3. 81'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Toluca: A. Briseno replaces O. Virgen
  4. 79'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Toluca by F. Vinas, assisted by O. Virgen
    0-4
  5. 74'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Juarez: Madson replaces G. Sepulveda
  6. 73'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Toluca by O. Virgen
    0-3
  7. 70'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Toluca: F. Vinas replaces Helinho
  8. 70'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Toluca: F. Arce replaces F. Romero
  9. 65'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Juarez: A. Mayorga replaces F. J. Nevarez Pulgarin
  10. 65'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Juarez: Guilherme Castilho replaces Monchu
  11. 58'
    Yellow Card
    F. J. Nevarez Pulgarin (Juarez) cautioned
  12. 46'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Toluca: N. Castro replaces A. Vega
  13. 46'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Toluca: J. Gallardo replaces F. Pereira
  14. 35'
    Yellow Card
    Helinho (Toluca) cautioned
  15. 34'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Toluca by J. Murillo (o.g.)
    0-2
  16. 10'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Toluca by Helinho, assisted by E. del Villar
    0-1

Juarez vs. Toluca: Match prediction & analysis

Match overview

  • Teams: Juarez vs. Toluca
  • Date: Sunday, August 30, 2026
  • Time: 8:00 PM ET

Current betting odds

  • Moneyline: Juarez +700, Toluca -295, draw +440
  • Total (Over/Under): 2.5 goals (-215/+164)

Dimers' win & correct score probabilities

  • Juarez: 10.4%
  • Toluca: 74.1%
  • Draw: 15.5%

These probabilities are generated using Dimers' Liga MX data model, which predicts the most likely outcomes for all major betting markets.

Most likely correct score: Juarez 0-2 Toluca (10.5%)

Correct score projections are based on expected scoring patterns. A team can have a higher chance of winning overall, even if the single most likely scoreline is a draw or narrow result.

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  • Moneyline probabilities
  • Total goals probabilities
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Who will win Juarez vs. Toluca? Prediction & correct score

Toluca is the most likely winner of this match with a win probability of 74.1%.

The most likely correct score is Juarez 0-2 Toluca.

But the most likely outcomes aren't always the best betting opportunities.

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