MLB postseason player props today: Sunday's best props include Parker Messick [10/18/2026]

Parker Messick under 4.5 strikeouts (+104)

• Edge: 8.8%
• Probability: 57.8%
• Game: Rays vs. Guardians (5:08PM ET)

Our model has flagged value on Guardians' Parker Messick under 4.5 strikeouts. A probability of 57.8% gives this play an edge of 8.8% at +104 odds.

Parker Messick under 4.5 hits allowed (+110)

• Edge: 10.0%
• Probability: 57.6%
• Game: Rays vs. Guardians (5:08PM ET)

Parker Messick’s hits allowed prop shows a 57.6% probability and an 10.0% edge at +110 odds, according to our model.

Drew Rasmussen under 4.5 hits allowed (-108)

• Edge: 4.9%
• Probability: 56.8%
• Game: Rays vs. Guardians (5:08PM ET)

The data highlights value on Drew Rasmussen under 4.5 hits allowed, with simulations showing a 56.8% probability and a 4.9% edge at -108.

Parker Messick over 1.5 earned runs (-110)

• Edge: 4.1%
• Probability: 56.5%
• Game: Rays vs. Guardians (5:08PM ET)

Our model finds value on Parker Messick over 1.5 earned runs, with a 56.5% probability and an edge of 4.1% at -110 odds.

Drew Rasmussen over 1.5 earned runs (-108)

• Edge: 3.0%
• Probability: 54.9%
• Game: Rays vs. Guardians (5:08PM ET)

Simulations indicate value on Drew Rasmussen over 1.5 earned runs for Rays, showing an edge of 3.0% at -108 odds.

Ryan Vilade over 0.5 bases (-105)

• Edge: 2.6%
• Probability: 53.8%
• Game: Rays vs. Guardians (5:08PM ET)

Ryan Vilade’s bases prop shows an edge of 2.6% at -105 odds, supported by a 53.8% probability according to our model.

Ryan Vilade to get a hit (+102)

• Edge: 4.3%
• Probability: 53.8%
• Game: Rays vs. Guardians (5:08PM ET)

Our model highlights value on Ryan Vilade to get a hit for Rays, with a 53.8% probability and a 4.3% edge at +102 odds.

Taylor Walls over 0.5 bases (+110)

• Edge: 2.7%
• Probability: 50.4%
• Game: Rays vs. Guardians (5:08PM ET)

The data shows value on Taylor Walls over 0.5 bases, supported by a 50.4% probability at +110 odds and an edge of 2.7%.

Jo Adell over 1.5 bases (+185)

• Edge: 2.0%
• Probability: 37.1%
• Game: Rays vs. Guardians (5:08PM ET)

A 2.0% edge on the over 0.5 bases line makes Jo Adell a value play in Rays vs. Guardians, supported by a 37.1% probability at +185 odds.

Chandler Simpson over 0.5 to steal a base (+296)

• Edge: 7.5%
• Probability: 32.8%
• Game: Rays vs. Guardians (5:08PM ET)

Simulations show value on Chandler Simpson over 0.5 to steal a base here, with a 32.8% probability and 7.5% edge at +296 odds.

MLB Playoffs player prop summary: Sunday, October 18, 2026

A quick summary of today’s top props by probability according to our model as of 4:56PM ET:

Conclusion

For October 18, 2026, our MLB postseason prop bets feature players such as Parker Messick, Drew Rasmussen and Ryan Vilade. Each pick is grounded in real-time data and advanced simulations to help you bet with clarity and purpose.

Built using automation and human oversight, this article draws on the latest data to deliver accurate, timely insights. If using this article for betting, Dimers encourages responsible gambling.