MLS Betting Guide for July 31-August 1: Best bets, match predictions and players to watch

MLS betting is back in full swing with the World Cup in the rearview mirror, and there's no better time to lean on the same soccer predictions that turned in a profit on the world's biggest stage. Dimers' soccer models stepped up to the task with a positive ROI across tournament bets and futures, and those same models now power our MLS predictions.

Our third World Cup providing predictions was also our most successful 💪

Our models returned a huge ROI across both pre-match markets and futures.

While the WC is over, we're still running soccer models for MLS, Liga MX and EPL.

More info in the replies 👇🏻 pic.twitter.com/SiYwXLoSLV

— Dimers (@DimersCom) July 27, 2026

With the league taking over the weekend, we're here to break down the full slate from who the model likes to win, and which matchups project as the most competitive, to the marquee players worth watching, like Lionel Messi, Robert Lewandowski and more.

The best part? These insights come from the data in our Dimers Pro subscription, and for a limited time, all of Dimers' MLS editorial coverage has dropped the paywall, giving you a firsthand look at the betting value within.

What's inside:

• MLS Schedule
• Most Likely Winners
• Most Likely Draws
• Top-Projected Scorelines
• Players to Watch this Week

MLS Schedule July 31 - August 1

The full slate of matches this week, noting which games feature a Dimers betting edge in our MLS Best Bets as of publishing.

Predictions and edges are subject to change.

Most Likely Winners

The matches where Dimers' model sees the clearest favorite.

New York City FC (62.2%) vs. Toronto FC — NYCFC sit fifth in the Eastern Conference and fifth in Dimers' MLS Cup rankings. This week, they get Toronto at home in the Bronx, where Dimers gives them the single biggest edge on the board as they go for three straight wins since the league returned. 

Philadelphia Union (60.8%) vs. Atlanta United — Atlanta have struggled this season, sitting bottom of the table in the East, just behind Philadelphia, but our model favors a Union side that returned from the World Cup break with two statement wins.

Inter Miami (61.5%) vs. Columbus Crew — Miami ride a six-match winning streak in MLS play into this one and now boast arguably the league's deepest attacking corps with Messi, Suárez, and newly arrived Casemiro all in the fold. Columbus will need a big night from their backline to keep this closer than the model expects.

Colorado Rapids (59.6%) vs. Austin FC — Another battle between basement-dwelling teams, this time in the West. Colorado get the nod at home against an Austin side that's won once in its past six, including losses of 3-0, 3-0 and 5-0.

Chicago Fire (54.4%) vs. Charlotte FC — The Fire are still finding their footing with Robert Lewandowski newly in the fold after transferring away MLS goals leader Hugo Cuypers, searching for their first win since signing the Polish veteran.

For more MLS predictions, visit our MLS match hub.

Most Likely Draws

The tightest-projected matches where a draw is most in play.

D.C. United vs. Nashville SC (25.2%) — Nashville arrive as the East's points leader, but D.C. have been stubborn at home, and Dimers projects this as the week's most balanced match.

San Diego FC vs. Minnesota United (23.8%) — San Diego trails Minnesota by three points in the standings, but boast a far superior offensive unit, scoring 31 goals to Minnesota's 19.

Sporting KC vs. Houston Dynamo (23.7%) — Kansas City have had a difficult campaign sitting all the way at the bottom of the West, yet both teams sport a pair of draws this season.

Real Salt Lake vs. St. Louis CITY SC (23.4%) — St. Louis' entire season has essentially been a draw, with 23 goals scored and 23 goals against, sitting one point back of Real Salt Lake.

FC Dallas vs. LA Galaxy (23.4%) — Dallas will be leaning on Petar Musa's finishing (league-leading 13 goals) against a Galaxy side, with 11 draws between the two clubs this season.

Top-Projected Scorelines

Dimers' most likely exact results across the full slate.

Every MLS match on Dimers comes with our complete correct score predictions, identifying the precise probability of every individual result in the match.

Find more of these inside each match prediction here.

Players to Watch

Marquee names, hot streaks, and the league's top scorers this week.

Lionel Messi (Inter Miami) — Back from Argentina's World Cup run and rested for the All-Star Game, Messi could return as soon as this weekend and has recorded 12 goals and 7 assists through 2026 and now lines up behind a six-match Miami winning streak against Columbus.

Casemiro (Inter Miami) — Making his MLS debut against Montréal on July 25, the Brazilian gives Miami a stabilizing midfield presence alongside Messi, registering two shots in his debut.

Robert Lewandowski (Chicago Fire) — Still hunting his first MLS goal and win since joining the Fire, but is finally on the favored side this weekend. 

Petar Musa (FC Dallas) — Musa has 13 goals in 2026, now most in the league with Hugo Cuypers off to Liga MX, with a goal or assist in five of his last six matches heading into a tight-projected clash with LA Galaxy. If Dallas is going to avoid the draw Dimers projects, it's likely Musa's finishing that does it.

Responsible gambling

Remember to please gamble responsibly. If you sense that you're taking your luck too far, know when to call it quits and don't be afraid to seek assistance. Keep in mind that gambling is all about having a fantastic experience! If you or someone you know is grappling with gambling issues, reach out to 1-800-MY-RESET for crisis counseling and support.