Robert Lewandowski, Chicago Fire still looking for impact in MLS

MLS rolls into another weekend of action since resuming after the World Cup, and this week, the spotlight stays on one story: Robert Lewandowski and a Chicago Fire team still searching for the payoff on its latest roster shakeup.

The Fire host Charlotte FC at Soldier Field on Saturday, and while Lewandowski's new team is favored to win, the betting value lies elsewhere according to Dimers' MLS predictions, which are packed with insights and riding the momentum of a positive ROI at the World Cup.

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Why Lewandowski is yet to Fire for Chicago

Two matches into the Lewandowski era, Chicago is still waiting for the results to match the headlines. The Fire have been outscored 6-3 since the 37-year-old Polish striker arrived via transfer, and he's yet to find the net in MLS, managing just one shot on target across those two appearances. Chicago was especially flat against NYCFC last week, a match that Dimers predicted the Fire would lose despite being priced almost evenly.

The Fire made room for Lewandowski by moving on from Hugo Cuypers, who was tied as the league's top goalscorer, a decision that surprised some and has yet to yield results. This week, it was revealed that Lewandowski's MLS salary is second only to that of global superstar Lionel Messi, according to his agent.

"The Fire executives fought harder for him than anyone else," said Lewandowski's agent Pini Zahavi. "It's rare for a team to want a player so badly. It's hard to imagine: they were patient, determined, and creative. They did everything possible to convince Lewandowski. Everything."

Now, Chicago sits 4th in the Eastern Conference but is only six points ahead of the 10th-place spot, which would leave them outside the MLS Cup playoffs. According to Dimers' MLS futures, the Fire have just a 3.9% chance to win the MLS Cup, sitting 7th overall.

But this week brings a shift in the numbers. After dropping both matches since the league resumed, the Fire have flipped the script for Saturday's home match against Charlotte FC, earning a 54.4% win probability from Dimers.

That's a notable swing, though Dimers' model suggests the market may be overpricing the turnaround. Chicago is currently sitting at -182 on the moneyline, which implies a 64.5% win probability, a full 10% over our probability. That's opened up betting value on Charlotte. You'll have to back a 23.6% underdog, but at odds as long as +470, you can find a betting edge across the books.

How Dimers' value on Charlotte varies across sportsbooks.

What the data says about Chicago Fire vs. Charlotte FC

Chicago doesn't care about betting value though, and if you dig into the match projections, the picture gets more encouraging for a Fire team that's been on the wrong end of high-scoring games lately:

• The match projects over 2.5 goals at 60.9%, continuing the open, end-to-end trend that's followed Chicago all season and that has cashed in 10 of the Fire's last 11 matches across all competitions.
• The single most likely scoreline is a 1-1 draw at 10.8%, but a 2-1 Fire win isn't far behind at 9.8%, and the next three most probable scorelines all have Chicago winning.

Correct score predictions from the Dimers model.

That scoreline distribution is the biggest confidence booster for Chicago in this match.

After two matches of leaking goals, our model sees Chicago come away with the win in four of our top five most likely results, including a pair of clean sheets and a pair of multi-goal victories.

Will Lewandowski find the net?

The market has also taken notice of where Lewandowski fits into that scoring equation.

He opens this week as a -150 favorite to find the net, a notable jump from last week, when he was priced closer to even money as the match's goalscoring favorite at -105. Still, one shot on goal through two matches isn't exactly the volume Lewandowski backers would be looking for.

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