Bucks vs. Celtics prediction, odds, pick for Nov. 4, 2026

The Boston Celtics are favored to beat the Milwaukee Bucks at TD Garden on Wednesday (7:30 PM ET), according to Dimers' NBA model.

Our Bucks vs. Celtics prediction gives Boston an 82.7% chance of winning, but the latest odds suggest there's betting value on the Bucks to cover at +11.5.

Bucks vs. Celtics key predictions

• Predicted score: Celtics 117-106 Bucks
• Celtics win probability: 82.7%
• Bucks win probability: 17.3%
• Bucks +11.5 spread: 55.4% cover probability
• Over 222.5 points: 50.1% probability

Our NBA predictions project each team's score based on player performance, expected minutes, matchups, availability, and home-court advantage.

We calculate win, spread, and total probabilities from these projections, comparing them against current odds to find betting value.

Bucks vs. Celtics odds

Here are the best available odds across the moneyline, spread, and total points markets we track.

• Bucks moneyline: 16¢ (Polymarket)
• Celtics moneyline: 84¢ (Novig)
• Bucks +11.5: 49¢ (Polymarket)
• Celtics -11.5: 52¢ (Polymarket)
• Over 222.5 points: 50¢ (Polymarket)
• Under 222.5 points: 50¢ (Novig)

Odds are subject to change and may vary by location.

Bucks vs. Celtics pick: Bucks +11.5 (49¢)

Our model makes the Celtics the likelier winner, but our best value bet is the Bucks to cover the +11.5 spread at 49¢ on Polymarket.

Those odds give the Bucks an implied cover probability of 49.0%, while our model puts it at 55.4%.

That's a 6.4% edge, the largest across the moneyline, spread, and total points markets for this game.

Bucks vs. Celtics player projections

Dimers' NBA player projections cover points, rebounds, assists, and more, accounting for recent performance, expected minutes, lineup changes, and defensive matchups.

Celtics star Paul George leads the scoring projections for this matchup with 19.8 points, plus 5.4 rebounds and 4.7 assists. The Celtics have three players among the top five projected scorers, compared to the Bucks' two.

Top 5 projected scorers

1. Paul George (Celtics): 19.8 points
2. Tyler Herro (Bucks): 18.7
3. Payton Pritchard (Celtics): 16.9
4. Derrick White (Celtics): 15.4
5. Jaime Jaquez (Bucks): 13.1

Projections are estimates, not betting recommendations. Compare them with available odds to judge value.

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• Best bets across the moneyline, spread, and total points markets
• Points, rebounds, and assists projections for players on both teams
• Player prop edges for points, rebounds, assists, three-pointers, steals, and blocks

Bucks vs. Celtics game details

• Matchup: Milwaukee Bucks vs. Boston Celtics
• Date: Wednesday, November 4, 2026
• Time: 7:30 PM ET
• Venue: TD Garden

About this prediction

This preview uses predictions from our NBA models, presented through a template written by our editorial team. Matchup details fill in automatically.

Predictions are estimates, not guarantees, and can change as new information comes in, such as injury news or lineup changes. Learn how our predictions work.

Dimers encourages responsible gambling.