NBA first basket picks and predictions for Wednesday, October 21, 2026

Our NBA first basket picks and predictions for today—Wednesday, October 21, 2026—are live with the Lakers' Luka Doncic projected as the most likely player to score first.

These projections are based on key first basket stats, including player efficiency, shot frequency, and expected starting lineups, forming part of our daily NBA player projections.

Doncic, Stephen Curry and Pascal Siakam lead Wednesday’s most likely first basket scorers, while we also identify tonight's top first basket value picks by comparing real-time odds to model-generated probabilities.

NBA first basket predictions tonight (October 21, 2026)

• Luka Doncic (Lakers): 20.8% probability
• Stephen Curry (Warriors): 17.0% probability
• Pascal Siakam (Pacers): 15.7% probability
• Brandon Miller (Hornets): 15.2% probability
• Giannis Antetokounmpo (Heat): 15.0% probability
• Day'Ron Sharpe (Nets): 14.6% probability
• CJ McCollum (Hawks): 14.2% probability
• Ty Jerome (Grizzlies): 14.1% probability
• Ja Morant (Trail Blazers): 14.0% probability
• Kawhi Leonard (Raptors): 14.0% probability

NBA first basket picks today (October 21, 2026)

• Stephen Curry (Warriors): 5.3% edge at +750 odds
• Gui Santos (Warriors): 4.5% edge at +1100 odds
• Franz Wagner (Magic): 4.2% edge at +950 odds
• Ja Morant (Trail Blazers): 4.0% edge at +900 odds
• Ryan Rollins (Bucks): 3.9% edge at +1100 odds
• LaMelo Ball (Timberwolves): 3.6% edge at +900 odds
• Norman Powell (Bulls): 3.6% edge at +900 odds
• CJ McCollum (Hawks): 3.1% edge at +800 odds
• Keyonte George (Jazz): 2.3% edge at +900 odds
• Matas Buzelis (Bulls): 2.2% edge at +900 odds
• Darius Garland (Clippers): 1.4% edge at +700 odds
• Luka Doncic (Lakers): 1.2% edge at +410 odds
• Ty Jerome (Grizzlies): 0.7% edge at +650 odds
• Zach LaVine (Kings): 0.7% edge at +800 odds
• Lauri Markkanen (Jazz): 0.3% edge at +650 odds
• Cedric Coward (Grizzlies): 0.2% edge at +800 odds
• Kyrie Irving (Mavericks): 0.2% edge at +750 odds

Edges represent the difference between model probability and implied odds.

For more insights on prop markets and value plays across the league, explore our full list of NBA prop bets for 10/21.

Conclusion: Betting on today's NBA first basket

For Wednesday, October 21, 2026, Luka Doncic, Stephen Curry and Pascal Siakam lead our first basket projections, with Doncic shaping as the strongest value play at +410. All picks and predictions are derived from Dimers’ NBA first basket model.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.