Oct 27, 2026
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Read Article NBA first basket predictions and picks for Tuesday, October 27, 2026
Updated: | First published:
Written by Nick Slade, Chief Content Officer
Get first basket predictions today driven by expert analysis of NBA slate on 10/27.
Our NBA first basket picks and predictions for Tuesday, October 27, 2026, are live with the Lakers' Luka Doncic projected as the most likely player to score first. Jayson Tatum and Jalen Brunson round out the top three.
Every pick comes from our daily NBA player projections, using detailed first basket stats such as player efficiency, shot frequency, and expected starting lineups. We also highlight tonight's top first basket value picks by comparing real-time odds to our projected probabilities.
NBA first basket predictions today: Top 10 players
- Luka Doncic (Lakers): 16.9% probability
- Jayson Tatum (Celtics): 15.9%
- Jalen Brunson (Knicks): 15.3%
- Ja Morant (Trail Blazers): 14.5%
- Paul Reed (Pistons): 14.1%
- Deni Avdija (Trail Blazers): 13.4%
- Paul George (Celtics): 13.1%
- Dylan Harper (Spurs): 13.0%
- Zach LaVine (Kings): 12.7%
- Day'Ron Sharpe (Nets): 12.4%
Best NBA first basket bet tonight
The highest first basket probability doesn't necessarily mean the best bet. We identify betting value by comparing our model's probabilities with the implied probabilities of available sportsbook odds.
Zach LaVine first basket scorer
- Odds: +1400 (FanDuel)
- Edge: 6.0%
- Probability: 12.7%
- Matchup: Kings vs. Spurs (8:00 PM ET)
The Kings' Zach LaVine has a 12.7% chance of scoring the first basket in his matchup tonight according to our model, compared with the 6.7% implied by FanDuel's +1400 odds. That's a 6.0% edge, the largest we've identified on Tuesday's NBA slate. LaVine is also in our top 10 most likely first basket scorers above, so this pick ranks well on both probability and price.
Our NBA player props page includes a full list of first basket bets, while our NBA player projections page shows first basket probabilities for every player expected to start tonight.
About these NBA first basket predictions
Dimers' NBA first basket model estimates each projected starter's chance of scoring the opening basket using shot frequency, scoring efficiency, and each player's share of their team's expected scoring opportunities.
Projections may change as starting lineups are confirmed. Learn more about how Dimers predictions work.
Dimers encourages responsible gambling.
Nick Slade, with nearly two decades of experience, is the Chief Content Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, overseeing content for Dimers. He specializes in soccer, NBA, and NHL betting, leveraging predictive analytics and machine learning to provide accurate betting insights.
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