Oct 26, 2026
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Read Article NBA first basket predictions and picks for Monday, October 26, 2026
Updated: | First published:
Written by Damien Souness, Chief Experience Officer
Get first basket predictions today guided by expert analysis of NBA slate on 10/26.
Our NBA first basket picks and predictions for Monday, October 26, 2026, are live with the Warriors' Stephen Curry projected as the most likely player to score first. Jayson Tatum and Ty Jerome round out the top three.
Every pick comes from our daily NBA player projections, using detailed first basket stats such as player efficiency, shot frequency, and expected starting lineups. We also highlight tonight's top first basket value picks by comparing real-time odds to our projected probabilities.
NBA first basket predictions today: Top 10 players
- Stephen Curry (Warriors): 16.6% probability
- Jayson Tatum (Celtics): 15.9%
- Ty Jerome (Grizzlies): 15.8%
- Giannis Antetokounmpo (Heat): 15.8%
- Brandon Miller (Hornets): 14.8%
- Brandin Podziemski (Warriors): 14.6%
- Naz Reid (Hornets): 14.4%
- Pascal Siakam (Pacers): 14.3%
- CJ McCollum (Hawks): 14.0%
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (Thunder): 14.0%
Best NBA first basket bet tonight
The highest first basket probability doesn't necessarily mean the best bet. We identify betting value by comparing our model's probabilities with the implied probabilities of available sportsbook odds.
Matas Buzelis first basket scorer
- Odds: +1100 (FanDuel)
- Edge: 3.6%
- Probability: 12%
- Matchup: Bulls vs. Celtics (7:30 PM ET)
The Bulls' Matas Buzelis has a 12% chance of scoring the first basket in his matchup tonight according to our model, compared with the 8.3% implied by FanDuel's +1100 odds. That's a 3.6% edge, the largest we've identified on Monday's NBA slate. Our NBA player props page includes a full list of first basket bets, while our NBA player projections page shows first basket probabilities for every player expected to start tonight.
About these NBA first basket predictions
Dimers' NBA first basket model estimates each projected starter's chance of scoring the opening basket using shot frequency, scoring efficiency, and each player's share of their team's expected scoring opportunities.
Projections may change as starting lineups are confirmed. Learn more about how Dimers predictions work.
Dimers encourages responsible gambling.
Damien Souness is Chief Experience Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, helping lead sports media brands such as Dimers. He specializes in creating trustworthy and data-driven content for sports fans, with experience working for globally recognized sports and media organizations.
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