Nov 5, 2026
NBA picks today: Thursday's best bets include Heat vs. Warriors play [11/5/2026]
Read Article NBA first basket predictions and picks for Thursday, November 5, 2026
Updated: | First published:
Written by Nick Slade, Chief Content Officer
Get first basket predictions today backed by expert analysis of NBA slate on 11/5.
Our NBA first basket picks and predictions for Thursday, November 5, 2026, are live, with the Warriors' Stephen Curry projected as the most likely player to score first. Giannis Antetokounmpo and Brandin Podziemski round out the top three.
Every pick comes from our daily NBA player projections, using detailed first basket stats such as player efficiency, shot frequency, and expected starting lineups. We also highlight tonight's top first basket value picks by comparing real-time odds to our projected probabilities.
NBA first basket predictions today: Top 10 players
- Stephen Curry (Warriors): 18.8% probability
- Giannis Antetokounmpo (Heat): 15.4%
- Brandin Podziemski (Warriors): 13.9%
- Franz Wagner (Magic): 13.6%
- Dillon Brooks (Suns): 11.8%
- Devin Booker (Suns): 11.4%
- Desmond Bane (Magic): 10.7%
- Bam Adebayo (Heat): 10.3%
- Miles Bridges (Suns): 10.0%
- Jalen Green (Suns): 9.9%
Best NBA first basket bet tonight
The highest first basket probability doesn't necessarily mean the best bet. We identify betting value by comparing our model's probabilities with the implied probabilities of available sportsbook odds.
Stephen Curry first basket scorer
- Odds: +750 (FanDuel)
- Edge: 7.1%
- Probability: 18.8%
- Matchup: Heat vs. Warriors (10:00 PM ET)
The Warriors' Stephen Curry has an 18.8% chance of scoring the first basket in his matchup tonight according to our model, compared with the 11.8% implied by FanDuel's +750 odds. That's a 7.1% edge, the largest we've identified on Thursday's NBA slate.
Curry is also our number one most likely in the list of first basket scorers above, so this pick ranks well on both probability and price.
Our NBA player props page includes a full list of first basket bets, while our NBA player projections page shows first basket probabilities for every player expected to start tonight.
About these NBA first basket predictions
Dimers' NBA first basket model estimates each projected starter's chance of scoring the opening basket using shot frequency, scoring efficiency, and each player's share of their team's expected scoring opportunities.
Projections may change as starting lineups are confirmed. Learn more about how Dimers predictions work.
Dimers encourages responsible gambling.
Nick Slade, with nearly two decades of experience, is the Chief Content Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, overseeing content for Dimers. He specializes in soccer, NBA, and NHL betting, leveraging predictive analytics and machine learning to provide accurate betting insights.
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