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NBA first basket picks and predictions for Monday, January 19, 2026
Updated: | First published:
Written by Damien Souness, Chief Innovation Officer
Get first basket predictions today backed by expert analysis of NBA slate on 1/19.
Our NBA first basket picks and predictions for today—Monday, January 19, 2026—are live with the Celtics' Jaylen Brown projected as the most likely player to score first.
Dimers’ first basket projections draw on detailed first basket stats, including player efficiency, shot frequency, and expected starting lineups, forming part of our daily NBA player projections.
Brown, Pascal Siakam and Norman Powell lead Monday’s most likely first basket scorers, while we also highlight tonight's best first basket value picks by comparing real-time odds to model-generated probabilities.
NBA first basket predictions tonight (January 19, 2026)
| Player | Team | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Jaylen Brown | Celtics | 15.6% |
| Pascal Siakam | Pacers | 15.2% |
| Norman Powell | Heat | 14.9% |
| Stephen Curry | Warriors | 14.4% |
| Jalen Duren | Pistons | 14.3% |
| Devin Booker | Suns | 13.6% |
| Naji Marshall | Mavericks | 13.5% |
| Dillon Brooks | Suns | 12.6% |
| Cade Cunningham | Pistons | 11.6% |
| Jay Huff | Pacers | 11.4% |
| Nic Claxton | Nets | 11.1% |
| Bam Adebayo | Heat | 10.8% |
| Andrew Nembhard | Pacers | 10.8% |
| Max Christie | Mavericks | 10.8% |
| Quinten Post | Warriors | 10.6% |
NBA first basket picks today (January 19, 2026)
| Player | Team | Edge | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Naji Marshall | Mavericks | 4.0% | +950 | 13.5% |
| Jalen Duren | Pistons | 1.8% | +700 | 14.3% |
| Max Christie | Mavericks | 1.7% | +1000 | 10.8% |
| Norman Powell | Heat | 1.6% | +650 | 14.9% |
| Pascal Siakam | Pacers | 0.9% | +600 | 15.2% |
| Andrew Nembhard | Pacers | 0.3% | +850 | 10.8% |
| Stephen Curry | Warriors | 0.1% | +600 | 14.4% |
Edges represent the difference between model probability and implied odds.
For more insights on prop markets and value plays across the league, explore our full list of NBA prop bets for 1/19.
Conclusion: Betting on today's NBA first basket
For Monday, January 19, 2026, Jaylen Brown, Pascal Siakam and Norman Powell lead our first basket projections, while Naji Marshall shapes as the strongest value play at +950. All picks and predictions are derived from Dimers’ NBA first basket model.
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Damien Souness leverages over 15 years of experience to create engaging content focused on sports, online gaming and wagering. As Chief Innovation Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, the parent company of Dimers, he offers strategic insights and innovative solutions to enhance the player experience.
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