Falcons vs. Saints prediction favors New Orleans to win MNF Week 4 [2026]

Since our Falcons-Saints predictions earlier in the week, we have re-simulated the outcome of Monday's NFL matchup between the Falcons and Saints, forming part of our NFL predictions coverage.

Our leading predictive model gives the Saints a 56.7% chance of beating the Falcons in Week 4 of the NFL season. Our predicted final score has the Saints winning 24-23.

Key factors favoring the Saints:

• New Orleans Saints QB Situation
• New Orleans Saints Team Rating
• New Orleans Saints Home-Field Advantage

According to our model, the oddsmakers have got it right, and the Falcons and Saints each have a 50% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 47.5 points has a 51.4% chance of going over.

The main contributing factors to the over being more likely are:

• Playing Conditions
• QB Rating

To see win probabilities for every matchup this week, check out our expert NFL Week 4 straight up picks.

Latest betting odds

We have researched the best NFL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Spread: Falcons +1.5 (-105) / Saints -1.5 (+104)
• Moneyline: Falcons +108, Saints -111
• Total: Over/Under 47.5 (+100/-102)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Spread: Saints -1.5 @ 49¢ via Novig
• Moneyline: Saints @ 53¢ via Novig
• Total: Over 47.5 @ 50¢ via Novig

According to our NFL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Saints to win.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Falcons vs. Saints TD scorers

Who will score a touchdown in Falcons vs. Saints?

According to our list of touchdown scorer predictions for today, Bijan Robinson is most likely to score an anytime touchdown in Falcons vs. Saints.

Our projections give Robinson a 61.6% chance of getting in for six at Caesars Superdome, while the running back is a 16.8% chance of scoring the first touchdown the game.

Anytime touchdown scorer predictions

Atlanta Falcons

• Bijan Robinson (RB): 61.6% probability
• Drake London (WR): 38.5%
• Kyle Pitts (TE): 24.6%
• Brian Robinson (RB): 19.0%
• Jahan Dotson (WR): 15.7%

New Orleans Saints

• Chris Olave (WR): 42.2% prob.
• Alvin Kamara (RB): 33.8%
• Juwan Johnson (TE): 29.7%
• Kendre Miller (RB): 27.7%
• Devaughn Vele (WR): 25.1%

First touchdown scorer predictions

Atlanta Falcons

• Bijan Robinson (RB): 16.8% prob.
• Drake London (WR): 8.5%
• Kyle Pitts (TE): 5.0%
• Brian Robinson (RB): 3.7%
• Jahan Dotson (WR): 3.0%

New Orleans Saints

• Chris Olave (WR): 9.7% prob.
• Alvin Kamara (RB): 7.3%
• Juwan Johnson (TE): 6.3%
• Kendre Miller (RB): 5.8%
• Devaughn Vele (WR): 5.1%

Top player props

Discover our predictions for the players likely to lead in passing, rushing and receiving yards for both the Falcons and Saints. Head to our NFL player projections page now to access a full list of player prop projections for every offensive player in this matchup and all other Week 4 games.

Quarterbacks

Of the starting quarterbacks, the Falcons' Michael Penix is projected for 226 passing yards, while the Saints' Tyler Shough is expected to throw for a whopping 268 yards.

Falcons rushing

• Bijan Robinson: 91 yds
• Brian Robinson: 29 yds
• Michael Penix: 9 yds

Saints rushing

• Alvin Kamara: 39 yds
• Kendre Miller: 30 yds
• Tyler Shough: 18 yds

Falcons receiving

• Drake London: 83 yds
• Bijan Robinson: 36 yds
• Kyle Pitts: 34 yds
• Jahan Dotson: 25 yds
• Olamide Zaccheaus: 15 yds

Saints receiving

• Chris Olave: 90 yds
• Devaughn Vele: 51 yds
• Juwan Johnson: 47 yds
• Bryce Lance: 21 yds
• Noah Fant: 20 yds

Game info & kickoff details

The NFL Week 4 matchup between the Saints and Falcons at Caesars Superdome is scheduled to start at 8:15 PM ET.

• Who: Atlanta Falcons vs. New Orleans Saints
• Date: Monday, October 5, 2026
• Time: 8:15 PM ET/5:15PM PT
• Venue: Caesars Superdome

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Conclusion

We predict the Saints, with a 56.7% win probability, will likely beat the Falcons in Week 4 of the NFL season.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary NFL prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.