Nov 2, 2026
Bears vs. Seahawks prediction favors Seattle to win MNF Week 8 [2026]
Read Article Bears vs. Seahawks Prediction: Simmons, Nelson and Our Kalshi Trade for Monday Night Football
First published:
Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Reviewed by Nick Slade
Quenton Nelson gives Sam Darnold some help up front, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba stands to benefit.
From 13 meetings as AFC South rivals to a Monday night reunion neither of them saw coming.
When the Colts traded Quenton Nelson to Seattle on Tuesday, the All-Pro guard figured he had seen the last of Jeffery Simmons. Two days later, the Titans sent Simmons to Chicago. "Man, can't get away from this guy," Nelson said this week.
But the bigger story is what Nelson means for the man standing behind him. Sam Darnold has faced the highest pressure rate per dropback of any quarterback to start 2026, and left tackle Charles Cross (ankle) is ruled out at time of publishing. Nelson's arrival gives the defending champs' quarterback some help up front at exactly the right time.
And when Darnold has time, the ball goes to Jaxon Smith-Njigba. With Rashid Shaheed also out, there's even less competition for those targets.
Our NFL predictions model gives Smith-Njigba a 52.4% chance to score a touchdown on Monday night. Kalshi has him at 50c.
Dimers trade of the night, via Kalshi
| Trade | Smith-Njigba anytime TD |
|---|---|
| Position | Yes on Jaxon Smith-Njigba 1+ TDs |
| Kalshi | 50c |
| Dimers model | 52.4% |
| Edge | 2.4% |
| Tip | Mon 8:15 p.m. ET, ESPN |
Kalshi prices at time of publishing (Sunday, Nov. 1). Prices move, so check before you trade.
Prices, model output and everything else can be found in our Bears vs. Seahawks prediction hub.
Who wins Bears vs. Seahawks on Monday Night Football?
Kalshi has the defending champions favored at 62c to win outright, and our model is right there with them at 60.6%. The Bears are 40c on Kalshi against our 39.4%.
Our model has Chicago covering +3.5 54.7% of the time. On Kalshi, Bears +3.5 means buying No on "Seattle wins by over 3.5 points," which costs 54c. That's about as close to fair as it gets.
The total tells the same story. Over 46.5 is 50c against our 48.7%, and the Under costs 51c against our 51.3%.
Chicago arrives at 5-2, owns the NFL's best record against the spread at 5-2, and is coming off a mini-bye after beating the Patriots 30-24 on Thursday Night Football. Seattle is 4-3 and held Kansas City to three points on Sunday night. You can compare every number across the books on our NFL odds page.
When the market and our model agree on every game line to within two points, the edge isn't on the side. It's in the players.
Can Quenton Nelson keep Sam Darnold clean?
Darnold's pressure numbers are the reason the Nelson deal matters. Four of his eight interceptions have come against pressure, according to Covers, and Chicago ranks fourth in pressure rate with 19 sacks and 10 takeaways. The Bears' front is getting stronger too. Simmons arrives with four sacks in seven games, and Montez Sweat is back from a two-game suspension.
That makes Nelson the most important new face on the field. He slots in at left guard, with Grey Zabel shifting to right guard, and after 13 meetings, he already knows the man across from him well. If the Notre Dame product gives Darnold a cleaner pocket, Seattle's passing game runs through one player.
Our model projects the Seattle quarterback for 234 passing yards, and 102 of them belong to Smith-Njigba.
Why is Jaxon Smith-Njigba the trade of the night?
Because our model sees him as the focal point of this game by a distance.
Smith-Njigba is projected for 102 receiving yards. No other receiver on either side is projected for more than 56 (Luther Burden III). Kalshi's 100+ receiving yards market is 49c, and the projection clears it.
The touchdown price is where the value is clearest. At 50c, Kalshi is treating Seattle's No. 1 receiver as a coin flip to score. Our model has him at 52.4%, with Cooper Kupp (21.2%), AJ Barner (23.9%) and Tory Horton (18.7%) well behind him in the Seattle pecking order. His Wednesday practice absence was a rest day, and he carries no injury designation at time of publishing.
Two things to watch. Malik Muhammad, Chicago's best cover corner this season, is questionable with a toe injury at time of publishing. And Seattle has its whole backfield available for the first time this year, with Zach Charbonnet making his season debut after a torn ACL and first-round pick Jadarian Price back from injured reserve.
Charbonnet's touchdown is 40c on Kalshi against our 38.9%, so the market has the backfield priced about right. Even with those backs taking some of the goal-line work, our model keeps the former Ohio State star above a coin flip to find the end zone.
For more of the week's top plays, check out our NFL props and player projections, our full list of NFL best bets, or unlock every model edge with Dimers Pro.
Kalshi promo code DIMERS: Trade $25, get $55
New to Kalshi? Use promo code DIMERS when you sign up, and get $55 in bonus credit once you make a qualifying trade of at least $25.
- Bonus: $55 in bonus funds
- Deposit required: $25 minimum first deposit
- Trading requirement: $25 in trades within 7 days of opening the account
- Total starting balance: $80
- Code: DIMERS
- Where it goes: The promo/referral field at registration
- Eligibility: New Kalshi accounts only; one per user; available in California and Georgia; not available in AZ, IL, MA, MD, MI, MT, NJ or OH
- Active as of: November 1, 2026
- Bonus expiry: Use the $55 within 7 days of it being credited
- Usage: Valid on all open Kalshi odds and prediction markets: MLB, NFL, college football, politics, economics, and global events
- Withdrawal: Bonus funds must be traded before any resulting funds can be withdrawn; review current terms at Kalshi.com
Claim the Kalshi promo code DIMERS and your $55 bonus here.
Certain limitations apply. The offer is available to new users only, subject to the terms and conditions at http://kalshi.com/tc/55. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information.
Bears vs. Seahawks FAQ
What is the best Kalshi trade for Bears vs. Seahawks on Monday Night Football?Our trade of the night is Jaxon Smith-Njigba to score, buying Yes on Smith-Njigba 1+ touchdowns at 50c. Our model makes it 52.4%.
What is the Bears vs. Seahawks prediction?Our model gives the Seahawks a 60.6% chance to win and the Bears a 54.7% chance to cover +3.5.
What are the Bears vs. Seahawks odds on Kalshi?At time of publishing, Seattle is 62c to win and Chicago is 40c. Seattle to win by over 3.5 points is 47c, and Over 46.5 total points is 50c.
Will Jeffery Simmons play against the Seahawks?At time of publishing, Simmons is expected to make his Bears debut on Monday night, just days after being traded from Tennessee. Quenton Nelson, his old AFC South rival, also debuts for Seattle in the same game.
Will Jaxon Smith-Njigba score a touchdown against the Bears?Our model gives Smith-Njigba a 52.4% chance to score, compared with a 50c price on Kalshi. He is projected for 102 receiving yards, the most of any player in the game.
Can I sell a Kalshi position before the game ends?Yes. You can sell a position at the current market price at any point before the market settles, whether you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss. Our Kalshi review covers how the platform works.
To give you the most accurate and helpful information, this article has been reviewed and edited by Nick Slade through our fact-checking process.
Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
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