How Case Keenum beat projections in Bears' upset of Eagles

Case Keenum beat every passing projection Dimers set for him Monday night, throwing for 247 yards and accounting for three touchdowns as the Chicago Bears beat the Philadelphia Eagles 27-7 at Soldier Field.

Dimers' pregame numbers had the 38-year-old at 17.0 completions and 173.9 passing yards. Starting for the injured Caleb Williams, he completed 24 of 34 passes for 247 yards and two touchdowns with no interceptions and no sacks, then added a 1-yard touchdown run in the fourth quarter.

Much of the gap came when the Eagles sent extra pressure, as he completed all 11 of his passes against the blitz for 145 yards. It was his first regular-season start in 1,009 days, and the win moved Chicago to 2-1 while handing the previously unbeaten Eagles their first loss.

Case Keenum's stats vs. Dimers projections

Keenum finished 73.1 yards above his passing projection, 42% more than the model expected. The rushing touchdown, his first since 2019, was one of the least likely parts of his night according to Dimers' NFL player projections, where the top three projections are free every day and Dimers Pro opens the full table.

How Keenum beat his projection

The blitz numbers explain most of it. Keenum's 145 yards against extra rushers are more than half his total, and he kept finding room in the middle of the field when Philadelphia sent pressure.

One busted coverage added to the total. On the 41-yard touchdown, a breakdown in the Eagles secondary left Kalif Raymond wide open deep over the middle. Take that play away and Keenum still finishes at 206 yards, above his 173.9-yard projection.

Time of possession supplied the volume. Chicago held the ball for 36:53 without a turnover, while Philadelphia's turnovers and 10 penalties kept handing it back. Those extra snaps are the likeliest reason Keenum's completions ran seven above our number.

His receivers outran their numbers too. We projected Raymond for 29 receiving yards; he finished with six catches for 90.

Why did the Bears start their QB3?

Williams went down in Week 2 against Minnesota, and it was reported he was expected to miss 3-4 weeks with a hamstring injury. Backup Tyson Bagent was cleared from concussion protocol on Sunday but took part in only one practice, according to NFL.com.

What our model saw in the Bears ML

Dimers' model gave Chicago a 39.5% win probability against 60.5% for Philadelphia. Win probabilities like these are free for every game on our NFL predictions page.

The best Bears price before kickoff was +175 at BetMGM, the top number of the 12 listed in our odds comparison. At that price, our model rated the Chicago moneyline a 0.9% edge. That made the Bears the stronger moneyline side by our numbers, since Novig had the Eagles at 64 cents, above our 60.5% probability. You can compare prices across sportsbooks and prediction markets on our NFL odds page.

A 0.9% edge is a slight one, and one result doesn't prove a number right. A 39.5% outcome is expected to happen about two times in five, and Monday was one of those nights. The takeaway is that the price on the Bears was a little longer than our model said it should be, and that difference held whether Chicago won or lost.

That gap between Dimers' probability and the price is what our NFL best bets track across the slate.

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Case Keenum's career: Undrafted, 14 seasons, Hall of Fame debate

Keenum signed with the Houston Texans after going undrafted in 2012. On Monday, in his 67th career start, he joined Ryan Fitzpatrick as the only quarterbacks to win starts for seven different NFL teams. Despite holding NCAA career passing records from his time at Houston, he isn't eligible for the College Football Hall of Fame because he was never named an All-American by one of the five outlets the NCAA recognizes, as the Houston Chronicle reported.

What's next for the Bears QB spot?

The Bears host the Jets in the early slate of games in Week 4. With Williams on a reported three-to-four-week timeline and Bagent cleared, Ben Johnson now has to choose between a healthy backup and the veteran who just beat Philadelphia by 20.