Chiefs vs. Dolphins prediction: Why Kansas City is favored to win in NFL Week 3 [2026]

Since our Chiefs-Dolphins predictions earlier in the week, we have re-simulated the result of Sunday's NFL game between the Chiefs and Dolphins, forming part of our NFL predictions coverage.

Our independent predictive model currently gives the Chiefs a 79.2% chance of defeating the Dolphins in Week 3 of the NFL season. Our predicted final score has the Chiefs winning 27-17.

Key factors favoring the Chiefs:

• Kansas City Chiefs Offensive Efficiency
• Kansas City Chiefs Power Rankings
• Miami Dolphins Offensive Efficiency

According to our model, the oddsmakers have got it right, and the Chiefs and Dolphins each have a 50% chance of covering the spread, while the 45.5-point over/under has a 51.2% chance of staying under.

The main contributing factors to the under being more likely are:

• Miami Dolphins Form
• Weather / Conditions

To see win probabilities for every matchup this week, check out our expert NFL Week 3 straight up picks.

Latest betting odds

We have researched the best NFL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Spread: Chiefs -9.5 (-111) / Dolphins +9.5 (+108)
• Moneyline: Chiefs -567, Dolphins +545
• Total: Over/Under 45.5 (+106/-108)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Spread: Dolphins +9.5 @ 48¢ via Polymarket
• Moneyline: Dolphins @ 16¢ via Novig
• Total: Over 45.5 @ 49¢ via Novig

According to our NFL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Dolphins to win.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Chiefs vs. Dolphins TD scorers

Who will score a touchdown in Chiefs vs. Dolphins?

According to our model, Kenneth Walker is most likely to score an anytime touchdown in Chiefs vs. Dolphins.

Our projections give Walker a 59.4% chance of scoring a TD at Hard Rock Stadium, while the running back is a 16.4% chance of scoring the first touchdown the game.

Anytime touchdown scorer predictions

Kansas City Chiefs

• Kenneth Walker (RB): 59.4% probability
• Rashee Rice (WR): 38.2%
• Travis Kelce (TE): 33.1%
• Xavier Worthy (WR): 31.3%
• Patrick Mahomes (QB): 20.9%

Miami Dolphins

• De'Von Achane (RB): 41.0% prob.
• Malik Willis (QB): 22.7%
• Malik Washington (WR): 21.9%
• Greg Dulcich (TE): 16.5%
• Ollie Gordon (RB): 16.0%

First touchdown scorer predictions

Kansas City Chiefs

• Kenneth Walker (RB): 16.4% prob.
• Rashee Rice (WR): 8.8%
• Travis Kelce (TE): 7.3%
• Xavier Worthy (WR): 6.8%
• Patrick Mahomes (QB): 4.3%

Miami Dolphins

• De'Von Achane (RB): 10.5% prob.
• Malik Willis (QB): 5.1%
• Malik Washington (WR): 4.9%
• Greg Dulcich (TE): 3.6%
• Ollie Gordon (RB): 3.5%

Top player props

Discover our predictions for the players likely to lead in passing, rushing and receiving yards for both the Chiefs and Dolphins. Head to our NFL player projections page now to access a full list of player prop projections for every offensive player in this matchup and all other Week 3 games.

Quarterbacks

Of the starting quarterbacks, the Chiefs' Patrick Mahomes is projected for 240 passing yards. The Dolphins' Malik Willis is expected to throw for 192 yards.

Chiefs rushing

• Kenneth Walker: 85 yds
• Emmett Johnson: 29 yds
• Patrick Mahomes: 19 yds

Dolphins rushing

• De'Von Achane: 65 yds
• Malik Willis: 36 yds
• Ollie Gordon: 14 yds

Chiefs receiving

• Rashee Rice: 52 yds
• Travis Kelce: 51 yds
• Xavier Worthy: 44 yds
• Kenneth Walker: 27 yds
• Tyquan Thornton: 26 yds

Dolphins receiving

• Malik Washington: 43 yds
• De'Von Achane: 29 yds
• Greg Dulcich: 26 yds
• Chris Bell: 26 yds
• Kevin Coleman: 22 yds

Game info & kickoff details

The NFL Week 3 game between the Dolphins and Chiefs at Hard Rock Stadium is scheduled to begin at 1:00 PM ET.

• Who: Kansas City Chiefs vs. Miami Dolphins
• Date: Sunday, September 27, 2026
• Time: 1:00 PM ET/10:00AM PT
• Venue: Hard Rock Stadium

NFL Week 3 promo

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Conclusion

We predict the Chiefs, with a 79.2% win probability, will likely beat the Dolphins in Week 3 of the NFL season.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary NFL prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.