Canadiens vs. Penguins prediction: Why Montreal is favored to win Saturday's NHL matchup [10/3/2026]

Using innovative machine learning and data, we have re-simulated the outcome of Saturday's NHL game between the Canadiens and Penguins, forming part of our NHL predictions coverage.

Our famous predictive model currently gives the Canadiens a 50.4% chance of defeating the Penguins. According to our model, the Penguins (+1.5) have a 70.2% chance of covering the puck line, while the 6.5-goal over/under has a 53.0% chance of staying under.

Latest betting odds

We have sourced the best NHL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Puck Line: Canadiens -1.5 (+215) / Penguins +1.5 (-256)
• Moneyline: Canadiens -110, Penguins +100
• Total: Over/Under 6.5 (+100/-108)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our probabilities against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Puck line: Penguins +1.5 @ -256 via Fanatics
• Moneyline: Penguins @ +100 via BetRivers
• Total: Under 6.5 @ -108 via DraftKings

According to our NHL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Under 6.5 total goals.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Canadiens vs. Penguins player props

Who will score a goal in Canadiens vs. Penguins?

According to our model, Cole Caufield is most likely to score an anytime goal in Canadiens vs. Penguins.

Our projections give Caufield a 39.5% chance of scoring a goal at PPG Paints Arena, while the star is a 7.9% chance of netting the first goal the game.

Anytime goal scorer predictions

Montreal Canadiens

• Cole Caufield: 39.5% probability
• Nick Suzuki: 28.3% probability
• Juraj Slafkovsky: 26.7% probability
• Chris Kreider: 23.4% probability
• Alex Newhook: 18.0% probability

Pittsburgh Penguins

• Sidney Crosby: 33.6% probability
• Rickard Rakell: 31.4% probability
• Egor Chinakhov: 29.6% probability
• Evgeni Malkin: 28.7% probability
• Nicholas Robertson: 24.1% probability

First goal scorer predictions

Montreal Canadiens

• Cole Caufield: 7.9% probability
• Nick Suzuki: 5.6% probability
• Juraj Slafkovsky: 5.5% probability
• Chris Kreider: 4.4% probability
• Ivan Demidov: 3.4% probability

Pittsburgh Penguins

• Sidney Crosby: 6.9% probability
• Rickard Rakell: 5.7% probability
• Egor Chinakhov: 5.5% probability
• Evgeni Malkin: 5.4% probability
• Nicholas Robertson: 4.3% probability

Game info & puck drop details

Saturday's action between the Penguins and Canadiens at PPG Paints Arena is scheduled to begin at 7:00 PM ET.

• Who: Montreal Canadiens vs. Pittsburgh Penguins
• Date: Saturday, October 3, 2026
• Time: 7:00 PM ET/4:00PM PT
• Venue: PPG Paints Arena

Conclusion

We predict the Canadiens, with a 50.4% win probability, will likely beat the Penguins in Saturday's NHL matchup.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary NHL prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.