Capitals vs. Senators prediction, odds, pick for Nov. 10, 2026

The Ottawa Senators are favored to beat the Washington Capitals at Canadian Tire Centre on Tuesday (7:00 PM ET), according to Dimers' NHL model.

Our Capitals vs. Senators prediction gives Ottawa a 53.2% chance of winning, while the latest odds suggest there's betting value on the under 6.5 goals.

Capitals vs. Senators key predictions

• Senators win probability: 53.2%
• Capitals win probability: 46.8%
• Capitals +1.5 puck line: 67.9% cover probability
• Under 6.5 goals: 54.1% probability

Our NHL predictions estimate how many goals each team is likely to score, accounting for factors such as recent performance, shooting and save percentages, home-ice advantage, and rest.

We then calculate the probability of each team winning and covering the puck line, plus the chance the game goes over or under the total, and compare those probabilities with the latest odds to find betting value.

Capitals vs. Senators odds

Here are the best available odds across the moneyline, puck line, and total goals markets we track. Novig has the best price in every market for this game.

• Capitals moneyline: 48¢ (Novig)
• Senators moneyline: 52¢ (Novig)
• Capitals +1.5: 70¢ (Novig)
• Senators -1.5: 31¢ (Novig)
• Over 6.5 goals: 48¢ (Novig)
• Under 6.5 goals: 53¢ (Novig)

Odds are subject to change and may vary by location.

Capitals vs. Senators pick: Under 6.5 (53¢)

Our model makes the Senators the likelier winner, but our best value bet is the under 6.5 total goals at 53¢ on Novig.

Those odds give the under an implied probability of 52.5%, while our model puts it at 54.1%.

That's a 1.6% edge, the largest across the moneyline, puck line, and total goals markets for this game.

Capitals vs. Senators goal-scorer predictions

Our NHL player props model simulates each matchup 10,000 times to estimate goal-scoring probabilities, factoring in expected player usage, lineup changes, opponent strength, and projected team goals.

Tim Stutzle of the Senators leads the anytime goal-scorer projections for Tuesday's game at 35.7%, ahead of teammate Drake Batherson (35.2%). Washington's most likely goal-scorer, Alex Tuch, is further back at 30.7%. Stutzle also leads the first goal-scorer projections at 6.9%.

Most likely anytime goal-scorers

1. Tim Stutzle (Senators): 35.7%
2. Drake Batherson (Senators): 35.2%
3. Alex Tuch (Capitals): 30.7%
4. Shane Pinto (Senators): 29.4%
5. Dylan Cozens (Senators): 25.7%

First goal-scorer predictions

1. Tim Stutzle (Senators): 6.9%
2. Drake Batherson (Senators): 6.6%
3. Alex Tuch (Capitals): 6.3%
4. Shane Pinto (Senators): 5.4%
5. Dylan Cozens (Senators): 5.0%

These are model probabilities, not betting recommendations. Compare projections with available odds to assess potential value.

Get every Capitals vs. Senators prediction with Dimers Pro

Dimers Pro members get full access to our Capitals vs. Senators predictions, including:

• Best bets across the moneyline, puck line, and total goals markets
• Full anytime and first goal-scorer probabilities for players on both teams
• Player prop edges for anytime goal-scorer, first goal-scorer, shots on goal, points, and assists markets

Capitals vs. Senators game details

• Matchup: Washington Capitals vs. Ottawa Senators
• Date: Tuesday, November 10, 2026
• Puck drop: 7:00 PM ET
• Venue: Canadian Tire Centre
• Tournament details: 2026 NBA Cup

About this prediction

This preview uses predictions from our NHL models, presented through a template written by our editorial team. Matchup details fill in automatically.

Predictions are estimates, not guarantees, and can change as new information comes in, such as injury news or starting goaltender confirmations. Learn how our predictions work.

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