Stars vs. Sabres Prediction, Picks & Odds

Dimers' prediction and analysis for Stars vs. Sabres in the NHL on Thursday, October 8, 2026 including our projected final score and probabilities for the moneyline, puck line, game total, and player props.
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FINAL
NHL
FINAL
NHL sport icon
NHL
Stars
4
0
KeyBank Center
Sabres
KeyBank Center
TEAM123T
Stars
1 3 0 4
Sabres
0 0 0 0
Live Probabilities
Win %
  • Stars
    100%
  • Sabres
    0%
Win Probability
TEAM123T
Stars
1 3 0 4
Sabres
0 0 0 0
P3 19:12 Zach Metsa shot blocked by Lian Bichsel
P3 19:03 Shot on goal by Justin Danforth saved by Jake Oettinger
P3 18:23 Noah Ostlund shot blocked by Lian Bichsel
P3 15:06 Shot missed by Beck Malenstyn
P3 14:31 Shot missed by Peyton Krebs
P3 13:51 Shot missed by Jason Robertson
P3 13:11 Shot missed by Justin Danforth
P3 13:03 Oskar Back shot blocked by teammate
P3 10:46 Shot on goal by Mattias Samuelsson saved by Jake Oettinger
P3 10:39 Shot missed by Jiri Kulich
P3 10:20 Shot on goal by Josh Norris saved by Jake Oettinger
P3 10:08 Shot missed by Josh Doan
P3 08:43 Power play - Shot missed by Rasmus Dahlin
P3 07:34 Shot on goal by Ryan McLeod saved by Jake Oettinger
P3 05:37 Shot missed by Peyton Krebs
P3 05:30 Shot on goal by Tage Thompson saved by Jake Oettinger
P3 04:18 Beck Malenstyn shot blocked by teammate
P3 03:50 Shot on goal by Roope Hintz saved by Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
P3 02:31 Shot missed by Josh Doan
P3 00:11 Shot missed by Roope Hintz
Play by Play
  1. P3 20:00
    End of 3rd Period.
  2. P3 19:12
    SHOT
    Zach Metsa shot blocked by Lian Bichsel
  3. P3 19:03
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Justin Danforth saved by Jake Oettinger
  4. P3 18:23
    SHOT
    Noah Ostlund shot blocked by Lian Bichsel
  5. P3 17:48
    Arttu Hyry won faceoff against Noah Ostlund in defensive zone
  6. P3 17:34
    Jack Quinn credited with hit on Nils Lundkvist in offensive zone
  7. P3 17:31
    Arttu Hyry won faceoff against Noah Ostlund in defensive zone
  8. P3 17:31
    Stoppage - Puck in Crowd
  9. P3 17:08
    Giveaway by Jason Robertson in offensive zone
  10. P3 16:11
    Peyton Krebs credited with hit on Mikko Rantanen in defensive zone
  11. P3 16:10
    Giveaway by Louis Crevier in defensive zone
  12. P3 15:37
    Mikko Rantanen won faceoff against Tage Thompson in neutral zone
  13. P3 15:37
    Stoppage - Offside
  14. P3 15:08
    Stars won faceoff against Sabres in defensive zone
  15. P3 15:06
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Beck Malenstyn
  16. P3 14:59
    Stars won faceoff against Zach Benson in neutral zone
  17. P3 14:59
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG) - TV timeout
  18. P3 14:31
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Peyton Krebs
  19. P3 13:51
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Jason Robertson
  20. P3 13:11
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Justin Danforth
  21. P3 13:03
    SHOT
    Oskar Back shot blocked by teammate
  22. P3 10:46
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Mattias Samuelsson saved by Jake Oettinger
  23. P3 10:39
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Jiri Kulich
  24. P3 10:24
    Stars won faceoff against Sabres in defensive zone
  25. P3 10:20
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Josh Norris saved by Jake Oettinger
  26. P3 10:08
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Josh Doan
  27. P3 08:43
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot missed by Rasmus Dahlin
  28. P3 07:54
    Shorthanded - Radek Faksa won faceoff against Tage Thompson in defensive zone
  29. P3 07:34
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Ryan McLeod saved by Jake Oettinger
  30. P3 07:31
    Stars won faceoff against Sabres in neutral zone
  31. P3 07:31
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG) - TV timeout
  32. P3 06:56
    Roope Hintz won faceoff against Peyton Krebs in defensive zone
  33. P3 06:56
    Stoppage - Icing
  34. P3 05:49
    Jiri Kulich won faceoff against Tyler Seguin in offensive zone
  35. P3 05:37
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Peyton Krebs
  36. P3 05:30
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Tage Thompson saved by Jake Oettinger
  37. P3 05:13
    Arttu Hyry won faceoff against Tage Thompson in defensive zone
  38. P3 04:18
    SHOT
    Beck Malenstyn shot blocked by teammate
  39. P3 03:52
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  40. P3 03:50
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Roope Hintz saved by Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
  41. P3 02:40
    Jiri Kulich won faceoff against Radek Faksa in neutral zone
  42. P3 02:31
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Josh Doan
  43. P3 01:40
    Justin Danforth credited with hit on Tyler Seguin in defensive zone
  44. P3 00:32
    Stoppage - Icing
  45. P3 00:11
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Roope Hintz
  46. P3 00:03
    Stars won faceoff against Tage Thompson in neutral zone
  47. P3 00:00
    Roope Hintz won faceoff against Peyton Krebs in neutral zone
  48. P2 20:00
    End of 2nd Period.
  49. P2 19:55
    Stoppage - Offside
  50. P2 19:39
    SHOT
    Owen Power shot blocked by Thomas Harley
  51. P2 18:13
    SHOT
    Power play - Tage Thompson shot blocked by teammate
  52. P2 18:00
    Power play - Giveaway by Zach Benson in offensive zone
  53. P2 17:30
    Stars won faceoff against Tage Thompson in defensive zone
  54. P2 17:30
    Penalty to Nils Lundkvist 2 minutes for Holding (Drawn by Jack Quinn)
  55. P2 17:01
    Stars won faceoff against Zach Benson in defensive zone
  56. P2 17:01
    Stoppage - Icing
  57. P2 16:51
    Stoppage - Icing
  58. P2 16:39
    Josh Doan credited with hit on Nils Lundkvist in offensive zone
  59. P2 15:54
    Arttu Hyry won faceoff against Peyton Krebs in defensive zone
  60. P2 15:54
    Stars won faceoff against Peyton Krebs in defensive zone
  61. P2 15:34
    Stars won faceoff against Sabres in neutral zone
  62. P2 15:33
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot missed by Roope Hintz
  63. P2 15:16
    Power play - Roope Hintz won faceoff against Josh Norris in neutral zone
  64. P2 15:01
    Shorthanded - Justin Danforth won faceoff against Roope Hintz in defensive zone
  65. P2 14:59
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Noah Ostlund saved by Jake Oettinger
  66. P2 14:53
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Noah Ostlund
  67. P2 14:31
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Olen Zellweger saved by Jake Oettinger
  68. P2 14:21
    Arttu Hyry won faceoff against Peyton Krebs in defensive zone
  69. P2 14:15
    Tage Thompson won faceoff against Radek Faksa in offensive zone
  70. P2 14:09
    Tage Thompson won faceoff against Radek Faksa in offensive zone
  71. P2 14:09
    Stoppage - Icing
  72. P2 13:57
    Stars won faceoff against Sabres in neutral zone
  73. P2 13:57
    GOAL
    Goal scored by Mikko Rantanen
    3-0
  74. P2 12:29
    Roope Hintz won faceoff against Noah Ostlund in neutral zone
  75. P2 12:29
    Stoppage - Offside
  76. P2 12:07
    Roope Hintz won faceoff against Tage Thompson in defensive zone
  77. P2 12:06
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Tage Thompson
  78. P2 11:53
    Peyton Krebs won faceoff against Sam Steel in defensive zone
  79. P2 11:19
    Stars won faceoff against Sabres in neutral zone
  80. P2 10:46
    SHOT
    Esa Lindell shot blocked by Tage Thompson
  81. P2 09:36
    Stars won faceoff against Sabres in neutral zone
  82. P2 08:47
    Stars won faceoff against Sabres in neutral zone
  83. P2 08:47
    Stoppage - Offside
  84. P2 07:45
    Peyton Krebs won faceoff against Arttu Hyry in offensive zone
  85. P2 07:45
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG) - TV timeout
  86. P2 07:44
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Konsta Helenius saved by Jake Oettinger
  87. P2 05:13
    Beck Malenstyn credited with hit on Mikko Rantanen in defensive zone
  88. P2 04:22
    SHOT
    Nils Lundkvist shot blocked by Louis Crevier
  89. P2 04:18
    Roope Hintz won faceoff against Jiri Kulich in offensive zone
  90. P2 04:18
    Stoppage - Puck in Netting
  91. P2 02:51
    Shorthanded - Sam Steel won faceoff against Ryan McLeod in offensive zone
  92. P2 02:51
    Stoppage - Icing
  93. P2 01:51
    Stars won faceoff against Tage Thompson in defensive zone
  94. P2 01:50
    Tage Thompson won faceoff against Oskar Back in offensive zone
  95. P2 01:47
    Delayed penalty (against the Stars)
  96. P2 01:13
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot on goal by Jason Robertson saved by Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
  97. P2 00:11
    Power play - Mikko Rantanen won faceoff against Josh Norris in offensive zone
  98. P2 00:11
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  99. P2 00:02
    Roope Hintz won faceoff against Josh Norris in neutral zone
  100. P2 00:00
    Power play - Roope Hintz won faceoff against Josh Norris in neutral zone
  101. P1 20:00
    End of 1st Period.
  102. P1 19:50
    Power play - Mikko Rantanen won faceoff against Justin Danforth in offensive zone
  103. P1 19:43
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Radek Faksa
  104. P1 19:29
    SHOT
    Justin Danforth shot blocked by Oskar Back
  105. P1 17:30
    SHOT
    Tage Thompson shot blocked by Thomas Harley
  106. P1 17:16
    SHOT
    Owen Power shot blocked by Sam Steel
  107. P1 16:54
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Thomas Harley
  108. P1 16:53
    Wyatt Johnston won faceoff against Jiri Kulich in offensive zone
  109. P1 16:53
    Stoppage - Puck Frozen - TV timeout
  110. P1 16:09
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Jamie Benn
  111. P1 13:13
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Zach Benson saved by Jake Oettinger
  112. P1 11:44
    Justin Hryckowian credited with hit on Mattias Samuelsson in offensive zone
  113. P1 11:28
    SHOT
    Ryan McLeod shot blocked by Esa Lindell
  114. P1 11:22
    Josh Norris won faceoff against Arttu Hyry in offensive zone
  115. P1 10:10
    Peyton Krebs credited with hit on Tyler Myers in offensive zone
  116. P1 10:00
    Jiri Kulich won faceoff against Oskar Back in offensive zone
  117. P1 09:49
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Wyatt Johnston saved by Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
  118. P1 09:22
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Jack Quinn
  119. P1 09:03
    Stars won faceoff against Sabres in neutral zone
  120. P1 08:42
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Roope Hintz
  121. P1 08:25
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Jason Robertson saved by Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
  122. P1 08:23
    Roope Hintz won faceoff against Josh Norris in offensive zone
  123. P1 08:23
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  124. P1 07:34
    SHOT
    Jiri Kulich shot blocked by teammate
  125. P1 07:34
    Giveaway by Tyler Myers in defensive zone
  126. P1 06:37
    Giveaway by Konsta Helenius in offensive zone
  127. P1 06:23
    Josh Norris won faceoff against Wyatt Johnston in defensive zone
  128. P1 05:04
    Tage Thompson won faceoff against Radek Faksa in offensive zone
  129. P1 05:04
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  130. P1 04:43
    Arttu Hyry won faceoff against Ryan McLeod in offensive zone
  131. P1 04:43
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  132. P1 03:29
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Tage Thompson saved by Jake Oettinger
  133. P1 02:34
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Tyler Seguin
  134. P1 02:19
    SHOT
    Louis Crevier shot blocked by Arttu Hyry
  135. P1 01:34
    Giveaway by Rasmus Dahlin in defensive zone
  136. P1 01:30
    Josh Doan credited with hit on Thomas Harley in neutral zone
  137. P1 01:05
    Justin Danforth credited with hit on Thomas Harley in offensive zone
  138. P1 01:04
    Beck Malenstyn credited with hit on Nils Lundkvist in offensive zone
  139. P1 00:52
    Stoppage - Puck in Netting
  140. P1 00:50
    SHOT
    Jason Robertson shot blocked by Rasmus Dahlin
  141. P1 00:00
    Game Setup.
Stats
Stars
STATS
Sabres
18Shots on Goal26
62% Faceoff Win % 38%
2/1 PP Opportunities/PP Goals 3/0
6Penalty Infraction Mins4
22Hits23
17 Shots Blocked 8
22Giveaways18
StarsDAL
SabresBUF
18Shots on Goal26
62% Faceoff Win % 38%
2/1 PP Opportunities/PP Goals 3/0
6Penalty Infraction Mins4
22Hits23
17 Shots Blocked 8
22Giveaways18

Stars vs. Sabres prediction & analysis

Game overview: NHL Thursday

  • Teams: Dallas Stars vs. Buffalo Sabres
  • Date: Thursday, October 8, 2026
  • Puck drop: 7:00PM ET
  • Venue: KeyBank Center

Current betting odds

  • Puck line: Stars (-1.5, +220), Sabres (+1.5, -225)
  • Moneyline: Stars -114, Sabres +105
  • Total (Over/Under): 6 goals (-113/-105)

Dimers’ win probabilities

  • Stars: 49.6%
  • Sabres: 50.4%

Our NHL win probabilities come from a machine learning model that assesses each team’s offensive and defensive performance, calculating multiple factors and accounting for OT and shootout chances.

It draws from these projections to forecast probabilities for the moneyline, puck line, and total goals.

Stars vs. Sabres player props & projections

Our highest anytime goalscorer probabilities for this game are:

  • Wyatt Johnston, Stars: 38.7%
  • Jason Robertson, Stars: 35.3%
  • Tage Thompson, Sabres: 40.8%
  • Josh Doan, Sabres: 28.7%

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Our Prediction: Who Wins?

After extensive simulations, our model gives the Stars a win probability of 49.6%, while the Sabres have a win probability of 50.4%.

Summary

According to our analysis, the Sabres are more likely to beat the Stars in the NHL game at KeyBank Center on Thursday.

That is the straight-up read. Whether either side is worth backing depends on the price, which is what our betting model rates.

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