Maple Leafs vs. Golden Knights Prediction, Picks & Odds

Dimers' prediction and analysis for Maple Leafs vs. Golden Knights in the NHL on Thursday, October 8, 2026 including our projected final score and probabilities for the moneyline, puck line, game total, and player props.
Hoops season sale: $30 off Dimers Pro passes. Limited time only.
FINAL
NHL
FINAL
NHL sport icon
NHL
Maple Leafs
3
4
T-Mobile Arena
Golden Knights
T-Mobile Arena
TEAM123OTT
Maple Leafs
3 0 0 0 3
Golden Knights
1 2 0 0 4
Live Probabilities
Win %
  • Maple Leafs
    0%
  • Golden Knights
    100%
Win Probability
TEAM123OTT
Maple Leafs
3 0 0 0 3
Golden Knights
1 2 0 0 4
OT1 04:53 Shot on goal by Kirill Marchenko saved by Adin Hill
OT1 04:18 Shot missed by Morgan Rielly
OT1 03:56 Shot on goal by William Nylander saved by Adin Hill
OT1 03:02 Auston Matthews shot blocked by Jack Eichel
OT1 02:04 Shot on goal by Jack Roslovic saved by Adin Hill
OT1 01:11 William Karlsson shot blocked by Darren Raddysh
P3 19:10 Shot on goal by Ivan Barbashev saved by Sergei Bobrovsky
P3 18:55 Jack Roslovic shot blocked by Shea Theodore
P3 18:03 Shot missed by Kirill Marchenko
P3 16:19 Oliver Ekman-Larsson shot blocked by Shea Theodore
P3 15:54 Mitch Marner shot blocked by Morgan Rielly
P3 14:45 Shot missed by Parker Wotherspoon
P3 14:09 Shot on goal by Rasmus Andersson saved by Sergei Bobrovsky
P3 13:29 Shot on goal by William Nylander saved by Adin Hill
P3 13:14 Mark Stone shot blocked by Auston Matthews
P3 12:15 Shot missed by Marc Gatcomb
P3 10:42 Power play - Shot missed by Tomas Hertl
P3 09:49 Power play - Shot on goal by Tomas Hertl saved by Sergei Bobrovsky
P3 09:43 Power play - Shot on goal by Mitch Marner saved by Sergei Bobrovsky
P3 06:30 Troy Stecher shot blocked by Mark Stone
Play by Play
  1. SO
    End of Shootout period.
  2. SO
    Shootout Goal scored by Trevor Connelly on Sergei Bobrovsky
  3. SO
    Shootout attempt missed by Shea Theodore
  4. SO
    Shootout attempt by Auston Matthews saved by Adin Hill
  5. SO
    Shootout Goal scored by Kirill Marchenko on Adin Hill
  6. OT1 04:53
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Kirill Marchenko saved by Adin Hill
  7. OT1 04:20
    John Tavares won faceoff against Jack Eichel in offensive zone
  8. OT1 04:18
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Morgan Rielly
  9. OT1 03:56
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by William Nylander saved by Adin Hill
  10. OT1 03:02
    SHOT
    Auston Matthews shot blocked by Jack Eichel
  11. OT1 02:04
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Jack Roslovic saved by Adin Hill
  12. OT1 01:11
    SHOT
    William Karlsson shot blocked by Darren Raddysh
  13. P3 20:00
    End of 3rd Period.
  14. P3 19:12
    Colton Sissons won faceoff against Brett Howden in defensive zone
  15. P3 19:10
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Ivan Barbashev saved by Sergei Bobrovsky
  16. P3 18:55
    SHOT
    Jack Roslovic shot blocked by Shea Theodore
  17. P3 18:24
    Maple Leafs won faceoff against Golden Knights in offensive zone
  18. P3 18:03
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Kirill Marchenko
  19. P3 17:24
    Brett Howden won faceoff against Nick Paul in offensive zone
  20. P3 16:19
    SHOT
    Oliver Ekman-Larsson shot blocked by Shea Theodore
  21. P3 15:55
    Auston Matthews won faceoff against Jack Eichel in defensive zone
  22. P3 15:54
    SHOT
    Mitch Marner shot blocked by Morgan Rielly
  23. P3 14:45
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Parker Wotherspoon
  24. P3 14:11
    Nick Paul won faceoff against Nic Dowd in defensive zone
  25. P3 14:09
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Rasmus Andersson saved by Sergei Bobrovsky
  26. P3 13:29
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by William Nylander saved by Adin Hill
  27. P3 13:14
    SHOT
    Mark Stone shot blocked by Auston Matthews
  28. P3 12:15
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Marc Gatcomb
  29. P3 10:42
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot missed by Tomas Hertl
  30. P3 09:52
    Shorthanded - Teddy Blueger won faceoff against Tomas Hertl in defensive zone
  31. P3 09:49
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot on goal by Tomas Hertl saved by Sergei Bobrovsky
  32. P3 09:45
    Teddy Blueger won faceoff against Tomas Hertl in defensive zone
  33. P3 09:43
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot on goal by Mitch Marner saved by Sergei Bobrovsky
  34. P3 08:58
    Penalty to Bo Groulx 2 minutes for Holding (Drawn by Ivan Barbashev)
  35. P3 08:48
    Giveaway by Teddy Blueger in neutral zone
  36. P3 08:41
    Teddy Blueger won faceoff against Jack Eichel in defensive zone
  37. P3 08:41
    Stoppage - Icing
  38. P3 07:46
    Giveaway by Darren Raddysh in neutral zone
  39. P3 07:06
    Nic Dowd won faceoff against John Tavares in defensive zone
  40. P3 07:06
    Stoppage - Puck in Netting
  41. P3 06:30
    SHOT
    Troy Stecher shot blocked by Mark Stone
  42. P3 06:04
    Stoppage - Puck in Benches - TV timeout
  43. P3 05:48
    Auston Matthews won faceoff against Jack Eichel in offensive zone
  44. P3 05:20
    SHOT
    Shea Theodore shot blocked by Nick Paul
  45. P3 05:08
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Maple Leafs
  46. P3 03:56
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by John Tavares saved by Adin Hill
  47. P3 03:45
    Brett Howden won faceoff against John Tavares in offensive zone
  48. P3 03:43
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Mitch Marner saved by Sergei Bobrovsky
  49. P3 03:39
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  50. P3 02:48
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by William Nylander saved by Adin Hill
  51. P3 02:45
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Auston Matthews saved by Adin Hill
  52. P3 02:24
    Nic Dowd won faceoff against Auston Matthews in defensive zone
  53. P3 02:21
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Oliver Ekman-Larsson
  54. P3 01:47
    SHOT
    Ivan Barbashev shot blocked by Jake McCabe
  55. P3 01:37
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Ivan Barbashev saved by Sergei Bobrovsky
  56. P3 00:26
    Giveaway by Morgan Rielly in neutral zone
  57. P3 00:22
    Stoppage - Offside
  58. P3 00:00
    William Karlsson won faceoff against Auston Matthews in neutral zone
  59. P2 20:00
    End of 2nd Period.
  60. P2 19:48
    Colton Sissons won faceoff against Jack Eichel in offensive zone
  61. P2 19:12
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot on goal by Jack Roslovic saved by Adin Hill
  62. P2 17:30
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot missed by Kirill Marchenko
  63. P2 17:27
    Power play - John Tavares won faceoff against William Karlsson in offensive zone
  64. P2 17:27
    Penalty to Mark Stone 2 minutes for Misconduct
  65. P2 16:46
    John Tavares won faceoff against Jack Eichel in offensive zone
  66. P2 16:44
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Kirill Marchenko saved by Adin Hill
  67. P2 16:15
    Stoppage - Icing
  68. P2 15:09
    Auston Matthews won faceoff against Marc Gatcomb in defensive zone
  69. P2 15:07
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot on goal by Ivan Barbashev saved by Sergei Bobrovsky
  70. P2 14:45
    SHOT
    Power play - Braeden Bowman shot blocked by Morgan Rielly
  71. P2 13:30
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot on goal by Trevor Connelly saved by Sergei Bobrovsky
  72. P2 13:09
    Shorthanded - Teddy Blueger won faceoff against Jack Eichel in defensive zone
  73. P2 12:44
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Jeremy Lauzon saved by Sergei Bobrovsky
  74. P2 12:32
    SHOT
    Kirill Marchenko shot blocked by Mark Stone
  75. P2 12:30
    John Tavares won faceoff against Jack Eichel in offensive zone
  76. P2 12:12
    Brett Howden won faceoff against John Tavares in offensive zone
  77. P2 12:10
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Parker Wotherspoon saved by Sergei Bobrovsky
  78. P2 12:02
    Maple Leafs won faceoff against Golden Knights in neutral zone
  79. P2 11:44
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Shea Theodore saved by Sergei Bobrovsky
  80. P2 10:04
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Nick Paul saved by Adin Hill
  81. P2 09:35
    Giveaway by Chris Tanev in defensive zone
  82. P2 09:29
    SHOT
    Golden Knights shot blocked by teammate
  83. P2 09:17
    Nick Paul won faceoff against Tomas Hertl in defensive zone
  84. P2 09:15
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Brayden McNabb saved by Sergei Bobrovsky
  85. P2 08:47
    Maple Leafs won faceoff against Golden Knights in neutral zone
  86. P2 08:47
    Stoppage - Offside
  87. P2 07:32
    Auston Matthews won faceoff against Brett Howden in defensive zone
  88. P2 07:24
    SHOT
    Ivan Barbashev shot blocked by Auston Matthews
  89. P2 06:47
    Shorthanded - Nick Paul won faceoff against William Karlsson in defensive zone
  90. P2 06:47
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  91. P2 06:32
    SHOT
    Power play - Jack Eichel shot blocked by Chris Tanev
  92. P2 06:15
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot missed by Trevor Connelly
  93. P2 05:57
    SHOT
    Power play - Mitch Marner shot blocked by Chris Tanev
  94. P2 05:33
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot on goal by Golden Knights saved by Sergei Bobrovsky
  95. P2 05:09
    Penalty to Oliver Ekman-Larsson 2 minutes for Hooking
  96. P2 04:51
    Delayed penalty (against the Maple Leafs)
  97. P2 03:58
    Penalty to Morgan Rielly 0 minutes for Interference on breakaway (Penalty Shot)
  98. P2 03:19
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Kirill Marchenko saved by Adin Hill
  99. P2 03:01
    Raphael Lavoie credited with hit on Teddy Blueger in offensive zone
  100. P2 02:25
    Maple Leafs won faceoff against Golden Knights in defensive zone
  101. P2 02:14
    Tomas Hertl won faceoff against Teddy Blueger in offensive zone
  102. P2 01:53
    Giveaway by Mitch Marner in offensive zone
  103. P2 01:12
    Auston Matthews won faceoff against Brett Howden in neutral zone
  104. P2 00:51
    John Tavares won faceoff against William Karlsson in defensive zone
  105. P2 00:51
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  106. P2 00:40
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Jack Eichel saved by Sergei Bobrovsky
  107. P2 00:26
    Jack Eichel won faceoff against Jack Roslovic in offensive zone
  108. P2 00:26
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  109. P2 00:00
    Shorthanded - Colton Sissons won faceoff against Jack Eichel in neutral zone
  110. P1 19:30
    Shorthanded - Teddy Blueger won faceoff against William Karlsson in defensive zone
  111. P1 19:28
    SHOT
    Power play - Mitch Marner shot blocked by Teddy Blueger
  112. P1 19:04
    Power play - Takeaway by Mitch Marner in offensive zone
  113. P1 18:17
    Shorthanded - Teddy Blueger won faceoff against Tomas Hertl in defensive zone
  114. P1 18:14
    Delayed penalty (against the Maple Leafs)
  115. P1 17:37
    GOAL
    Goal scored by Mark Stone assisted by Jack Eichel
    3-1
  116. P1 17:36
    Jack Eichel won faceoff against Nick Paul in neutral zone
  117. P1 17:27
    Maple Leafs won faceoff against Golden Knights in neutral zone
  118. P1 17:25
    SHOT
    Kirill Marchenko shot blocked by Jack Eichel
  119. P1 16:42
    SHOT
    Oliver Ekman-Larsson shot blocked by Noah Hanifin
  120. P1 16:02
    Nick Paul won faceoff against William Karlsson in defensive zone
  121. P1 16:00
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Trevor Connelly saved by Sergei Bobrovsky
  122. P1 15:25
    SHOT
    Darren Raddysh shot blocked by teammate
  123. P1 14:52
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Easton Cowan saved by Adin Hill
  124. P1 14:36
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Easton Cowan
  125. P1 13:39
    Stoppage - Icing
  126. P1 12:43
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Rasmus Andersson
  127. P1 12:31
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Rasmus Andersson saved by Sergei Bobrovsky
  128. P1 12:23
    Stoppage - Icing
  129. P1 10:50
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Mark Stone saved by Sergei Bobrovsky
  130. P1 09:16
    Maple Leafs won faceoff against Golden Knights in neutral zone
  131. P1 09:13
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Jeremy Lauzon
  132. P1 08:37
    Nic Dowd won faceoff against Teddy Blueger in neutral zone
  133. P1 08:25
    SHOT
    Trevor Connelly shot blocked by Nick Paul
  134. P1 07:29
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Shea Theodore
  135. P1 06:46
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Kirill Marchenko saved by Adin Hill
  136. P1 06:36
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Jack Roslovic
  137. P1 05:34
    SHOT
    Rasmus Andersson shot blocked by teammate
  138. P1 05:26
    SHOT
    Maple Leafs shot blocked by Brandon Duhaime
  139. P1 05:17
    Stoppage - Puck in Benches
  140. P1 04:18
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Jack Eichel saved by Sergei Bobrovsky
  141. P1 03:30
    John Tavares won faceoff against Mark Stone in defensive zone
  142. P1 03:29
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Noah Hanifin saved by Sergei Bobrovsky
  143. P1 03:20
    GOAL
    Goal scored by Easton Cowan assisted by Chris Tanev
    2-0
  144. P1 02:24
    Giveaway by Kirill Marchenko in offensive zone
  145. P1 02:12
    SHOT
    Darren Raddysh shot blocked by Shea Theodore
  146. P1 02:03
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  147. P1 01:51
    Jeremy Lauzon credited with hit on Oliver Ekman-Larsson in defensive zone
  148. P1 00:51
    Giveaway by Morgan Rielly in defensive zone
  149. P1 00:34
    John Tavares won faceoff against Jack Eichel in neutral zone
  150. P1 00:19
    William Karlsson won faceoff against Auston Matthews in offensive zone
  151. P1 00:13
    Auston Matthews won faceoff against William Karlsson in defensive zone
  152. P1 00:09
    Giveaway by Jake McCabe in defensive zone
  153. P1 00:00
    Game Setup.
Stats
Maple Leafs
STATS
Golden Knights
24Shots on Goal43
60% Faceoff Win % 40%
1/0 PP Opportunities/PP Goals 4/0
8Penalty Infraction Mins2
13Hits27
16 Shots Blocked 15
19Giveaways17
Maple LeafsTOR
Golden KnightsVGK
24Shots on Goal43
60% Faceoff Win % 40%
1/0 PP Opportunities/PP Goals 4/0
8Penalty Infraction Mins2
13Hits27
16 Shots Blocked 15
19Giveaways17

Maple Leafs vs. Golden Knights prediction & analysis

Game overview: NHL Thursday

  • Teams: Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Vegas Golden Knights
  • Date: Thursday, October 8, 2026
  • Puck drop: 10:00PM ET
  • Venue: T-Mobile Arena

Current betting odds

  • Puck line: Maple Leafs (+1.5, -155), Golden Knights (-1.5, +150)
  • Moneyline: Maple Leafs +160, Golden Knights -164
  • Total (Over/Under): 6.5 goals (-120/+110)

Dimers’ win probabilities

  • Maple Leafs: 38.2%
  • Golden Knights: 61.7%

Our NHL win probabilities come from a machine learning model that assesses each team’s offensive and defensive performance, calculating multiple factors and accounting for OT and shootout chances.

It draws from these projections to forecast probabilities for the moneyline, puck line, and total goals.

Maple Leafs vs. Golden Knights player props & projections

Our highest anytime goalscorer probabilities for this game are:

  • Auston Matthews, Maple Leafs: 34.9%
  • William Nylander, Maple Leafs: 32.2%
  • Mark Stone, Golden Knights: 37.2%
  • Jack Eichel, Golden Knights: 33.3%

Want the best picks for this game?

The most likely result is not always the bet worth making.

Join Dimers Pro for the full betting analysis on Maple Leafs vs. Golden Knights, including:

  • Every game and player prop bet our model rates for this matchup.
  • Best Bets across tonight's full NHL slate.
  • Automatic line shopping across major sportsbooks and prediction markets.
  • All player prop probabilities for every NHL game.

Unlock every pick for Maple Leafs vs. Golden Knights with Dimers Pro.

Our Prediction: Who Wins?

After extensive simulations, our model gives the Maple Leafs a win probability of 38.2%, while the Golden Knights have a win probability of 61.7%.

Summary

According to our analysis, the Golden Knights are more likely to beat the Maple Leafs in the NHL game at T-Mobile Arena on Thursday.

That is the straight-up read. Whether either side is worth backing depends on the price, which is what our betting model rates.

Responsible gambling

Dimers’ predictions and betting insights are here to inform your decisions, not to make them for you. If you are betting on Maple Leafs vs. Golden Knights, set your limits in advance and stay within them. For support, visit our responsible gambling resources.

When you click or tap a link on Dimers that goes to a third-party website we have a commercial relationship with, such as a sportsbook, we may receive a referral fee.