Maple Leafs vs. Flames Prediction, Picks & Odds

Dimers' prediction and analysis for Maple Leafs vs. Flames in the NHL on Monday, October 26, 2026 including our projected final score and probabilities for the moneyline, puck line, game total, and player props.
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LIVE
2nd 3:23
NHL
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LIVE
2nd 3:23
Updating LIVE
NHL sport icon
NHL
Maple Leafs
PP
1
:
3
Scotiabank Saddledome
Flames
Scotiabank Saddledome
TEAM123T
Maple Leafs
0 1 1
Flames
2 1 3
Live Probabilities
Win %
  • Maple Leafs
    13%
  • Flames
    87%
Win Probability
TEAM123T
Maple Leafs
0 1 1
Flames
2 1 3
P2 15:43 Power play - Shot on goal by Darren Raddysh saved by Devin Cooley
P2 13:45 Shot on goal by Ryan Strome saved by Sergei Bobrovsky
P2 13:42 Shot on goal by Ryan Strome saved by Sergei Bobrovsky
P2 13:32 Shot on goal by William Nylander saved by Devin Cooley
P2 12:40 Shot on goal by Morgan Frost saved by Sergei Bobrovsky
P2 11:46 Shot on goal by Matvei Gridin saved by Sergei Bobrovsky
P2 11:01 Shot missed by Auston Matthews
P2 10:10 Shot on goal by Troy Stecher saved by Devin Cooley
P2 09:04 Ryan Strome shot blocked by Morgan Rielly
P2 08:14 Shot missed by Mikael Backlund
P2 07:31 Shorthanded - Shot on goal by Oliver Ekman-Larsson saved by Devin Cooley
P2 05:53 Shorthanded - Shot on goal by Brandon Duhaime saved by Devin Cooley
P2 05:50 Power play - Shot on goal by Morgan Frost saved by Sergei Bobrovsky
P2 03:48 Shot on goal by Ryan Strome saved by Sergei Bobrovsky
P2 03:47 Shot missed by Martin Pospisil
P2 02:39 Shot missed by Flames
P2 02:30 Shot on goal by Gavin McKenna saved by Devin Cooley
P2 01:21 Shot missed by Yegor Sharangovich
P1 17:57 Shot missed by Adam Klapka
P1 16:52 Shot on goal by Zach Whitecloud saved by Sergei Bobrovsky
Play by Play
  1. P2 16:37
    Maple Leafs won faceoff against Flames in neutral zone
  2. P2 15:43
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot on goal by Darren Raddysh saved by Devin Cooley
  3. P2 15:40
    Penalty to Mikael Backlund 2 minutes for Slashing (Drawn by Auston Matthews)
  4. P2 15:29
    Adam Klapka credited with hit on Morgan Rielly in offensive zone
  5. P2 15:18
    Stoppage - Icing
  6. P2 15:10
    Colton Sissons credited with hit on Kevin Bahl in offensive zone
  7. P2 14:51
    Maple Leafs won faceoff against Flames in neutral zone
  8. P2 14:51
    Stoppage - Offside - TV timeout
  9. P2 13:45
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Ryan Strome saved by Sergei Bobrovsky
  10. P2 13:42
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Ryan Strome saved by Sergei Bobrovsky
  11. P2 13:34
    Nick Paul won faceoff against Ryan Strome in offensive zone
  12. P2 13:32
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by William Nylander saved by Devin Cooley
  13. P2 13:29
    Nick Paul won faceoff against Martin Pospisil in offensive zone
  14. P2 12:54
    Teddy Blueger won faceoff against Jonathan Castagna in neutral zone
  15. P2 12:40
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Morgan Frost saved by Sergei Bobrovsky
  16. P2 12:21
    Colton Sissons won faceoff against Morgan Frost in defensive zone
  17. P2 12:21
    Stoppage - Puck in Netting - TV timeout
  18. P2 11:46
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Matvei Gridin saved by Sergei Bobrovsky
  19. P2 11:01
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Auston Matthews
  20. P2 10:38
    Mikael Backlund won faceoff against Auston Matthews in defensive zone
  21. P2 10:10
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Troy Stecher saved by Devin Cooley
  22. P2 09:04
    SHOT
    Ryan Strome shot blocked by Morgan Rielly
  23. P2 08:14
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Mikael Backlund
  24. P2 07:31
    SHOT
    Shorthanded - Shot on goal by Oliver Ekman-Larsson saved by Devin Cooley
  25. P2 05:53
    SHOT
    Shorthanded - Shot on goal by Brandon Duhaime saved by Devin Cooley
  26. P2 05:52
    Power play - Giveaway by Zayne Parekh in offensive zone
  27. P2 05:50
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot on goal by Morgan Frost saved by Sergei Bobrovsky
  28. P2 05:45
    Power play - Matt Coronato won faceoff against Teddy Blueger in offensive zone
  29. P2 05:45
    Penalty to Vinni Lettieri 2 minutes for Tripping (Drawn by Zayne Parekh)
  30. P2 05:21
    Mikael Backlund won faceoff against Colton Sissons in offensive zone
  31. P2 05:21
    Stoppage - Icing
  32. P2 04:07
    Takeaway by Gavin McKenna in neutral zone
  33. P2 03:48
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Ryan Strome saved by Sergei Bobrovsky
  34. P2 03:47
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Martin Pospisil
  35. P2 02:41
    Teddy Blueger won faceoff against Adam Klapka in defensive zone
  36. P2 02:41
    Stoppage - Puck in Netting
  37. P2 02:39
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Flames
  38. P2 02:30
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Gavin McKenna saved by Devin Cooley
  39. P2 01:21
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Yegor Sharangovich
  40. P2 00:35
    Ryan Strome won faceoff against Nick Paul in neutral zone
  41. P2 00:35
    Stoppage - Puck in Benches
  42. P1 20:00
    End of 1st Period.
  43. P1 19:42
    Shorthanded - Teddy Blueger won faceoff against Matt Coronato in defensive zone
  44. P1 18:56
    Auston Matthews won faceoff against Morgan Frost in defensive zone
  45. P1 17:57
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Adam Klapka
  46. P1 17:44
    Maple Leafs won faceoff against Kevin Bahl in defensive zone
  47. P1 17:25
    Colton Sissons won faceoff against Adam Klapka in defensive zone
  48. P1 16:52
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Zach Whitecloud saved by Sergei Bobrovsky
  49. P1 16:48
    Maple Leafs won faceoff against Flames in neutral zone
  50. P1 16:07
    Teddy Blueger won faceoff against Morgan Frost in defensive zone
  51. P1 16:00
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Yegor Sharangovich
  52. P1 14:59
    Mikael Backlund won faceoff against Jack Roslovic in defensive zone
  53. P1 14:57
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Nick Paul saved by Devin Cooley
  54. P1 14:30
    Giveaway by Nick Paul in offensive zone
  55. P1 14:27
    Takeaway by Nick Paul in offensive zone
  56. P1 13:46
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot on goal by William Nylander saved by Devin Cooley
  57. P1 13:20
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot on goal by William Nylander saved by Devin Cooley
  58. P1 13:03
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot missed by Auston Matthews
  59. P1 12:09
    Power play - Auston Matthews won faceoff against Mikael Backlund in offensive zone
  60. P1 12:09
    Stoppage - TV timeout
  61. P1 12:09
    Penalty to Matt Coronato 2 minutes for Delay of Game
  62. P1 11:50
    Mikael Backlund won faceoff against Auston Matthews in neutral zone
  63. P1 11:50
    GOAL
    Goal scored by Mikael Backlund assisted by Matt Coronato and Joel Farabee
    0-2
  64. P1 10:44
    Martin Pospisil credited with hit on Nick Paul in neutral zone
  65. P1 10:38
    Martin Pospisil won faceoff against Nick Paul in neutral zone
  66. P1 10:24
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Oliver Ekman-Larsson saved by Devin Cooley
  67. P1 10:05
    Zack MacEwen won faceoff against Jonathan Castagna in neutral zone
  68. P1 10:04
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Matvei Gridin saved by Sergei Bobrovsky
  69. P1 09:32
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Aydar Suniev saved by Sergei Bobrovsky
  70. P1 09:13
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Aydar Suniev saved by Sergei Bobrovsky
  71. P1 09:08
    SHOT
    Yan Kuznetsov shot blocked by Vinni Lettieri
  72. P1 09:05
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Joel Farabee
  73. P1 07:49
    Adam Klapka credited with hit on Kirill Marchenko in offensive zone
  74. P1 07:45
    Nick Paul won faceoff against Jonathan Castagna in defensive zone
  75. P1 07:45
    Stoppage - Icing
  76. P1 07:36
    Nick Paul won faceoff against Jonathan Castagna in defensive zone
  77. P1 07:36
    Stoppage - Icing
  78. P1 07:23
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Simon Nemec saved by Sergei Bobrovsky
  79. P1 06:55
    Power play - Ryan Strome won faceoff against Nick Paul in offensive zone
  80. P1 06:53
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot on goal by Aydar Suniev saved by Sergei Bobrovsky
  81. P1 06:35
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot on goal by Matvei Gridin saved by Sergei Bobrovsky
  82. P1 05:37
    Power play - Matt Coronato won faceoff against Teddy Blueger in offensive zone
  83. P1 05:37
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  84. P1 05:35
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot on goal by Matvei Gridin saved by Sergei Bobrovsky
  85. P1 04:56
    Shorthanded - Teddy Blueger won faceoff against Morgan Frost in defensive zone
  86. P1 04:56
    Penalty to Dakota Mermis 2 minutes for Tripping
  87. P1 04:22
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Yan Kuznetsov saved by Sergei Bobrovsky
  88. P1 03:36
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Morgan Rielly
  89. P1 03:15
    Mikael Backlund won faceoff against Jack Roslovic in defensive zone
  90. P1 02:36
    Giveaway by Kevin Bahl in neutral zone
  91. P1 02:32
    SHOT
    Zack MacEwen shot blocked by Kevin Bahl
  92. P1 02:11
    SHOT
    Brennan Othmann shot blocked by teammate
  93. P1 01:55
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Darren Raddysh saved by Devin Cooley
  94. P1 00:55
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Easton Cowan
  95. P1 00:43
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Jack Roslovic
  96. P1 00:00
    Nick Paul won faceoff against Martin Pospisil in neutral zone
  97. P1 00:00
    Game Setup.
Stats
Maple Leafs
STATS
Flames
16Shots on Goal22
50% Faceoff Win % 50%
2/0 PP Opportunities/PP Goals 3/1
13Penalty Infraction Mins11
17Hits19
11 Shots Blocked 1
8Giveaways6
Maple LeafsTOR
FlamesCGY
16Shots on Goal22
50% Faceoff Win % 50%
2/0 PP Opportunities/PP Goals 3/1
13Penalty Infraction Mins11
17Hits19
11 Shots Blocked 1
8Giveaways6

Maple Leafs vs. Flames prediction & analysis

Game overview: NHL Monday

  • Teams: Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Calgary Flames
  • Date: Monday, October 26, 2026
  • Puck drop: 8:30PM ET
  • Venue: Scotiabank Saddledome

Current betting odds

  • Puck line: Maple Leafs (-1.5, +182), Flames (+1.5, -186)
  • Moneyline: Maple Leafs -125, Flames +122
  • Total (Over/Under): 6.5 goals (-111/+108)

Dimers’ win probabilities

  • Maple Leafs: 54.1%
  • Flames: 45.9%

Our NHL win probabilities come from a machine learning model that assesses each team’s offensive and defensive performance, calculating multiple factors and accounting for OT and shootout chances.

It draws from these projections to forecast probabilities for the moneyline, puck line, and total goals.

Maple Leafs vs. Flames player props & projections

Our highest anytime goalscorer probabilities for this game are:

  • Auston Matthews, Maple Leafs: 38.6%
  • William Nylander, Maple Leafs: 38.3%
  • Aydar Suniev, Flames: 27.8%
  • Joel Farabee, Flames: 27.0%

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Our Prediction: Who Wins?

After extensive simulations, our model gives the Maple Leafs a win probability of 54.1%, while the Flames have a win probability of 45.9%.

Summary

According to our analysis, the Maple Leafs are more likely to beat the Flames in the NHL game at Scotiabank Saddledome on Monday.

That is the straight-up read. Whether either side is worth backing depends on the price, which is what our betting model rates.

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