Adrian Mannarino vs. Denis Shapovalov prediction, odds, picks for ATP Chengdu Open 2026

Using trusted machine learning and statistical analysis, we have re-simulated the result of Sunday's Mannarino-Shapovalov men's singles match, forming part of our tennis predictions coverage.

Our independent predictive model currently gives Shapovalov a 70% chance of winning against Mannarino at the ATP Chengdu Open tournament. Additionally, Shapovalov has a 65% chance of winning the first set. The simulations also show Shapovalov (-3.5) has a 53% chance of covering the games spread, while the under 22.5 games has a 52% chance of hitting, according to our model.

Latest betting odds

We have researched the most up-to-date betting odds in America for this match, which are listed here:

• Moneyline: Denis Shapovalov -250, Adrian Mannarino +210
• First Set: Mannarino +175, Shapovalov -227

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Moneyline: Shapovalov @ -250 via DraftKings
• First Set: Shapovalov @ -125 via DraftKings

According to our tennis best bets, the top play to make on this match is over 22.5 total games.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Game info & first serve details

The ATP Chengdu Open match between Adrian Mannarino and Denis Shapovalov is scheduled to start on Sunday at 3:20 AM ET.

• Who: Adrian Mannarino vs. Denis Shapovalov
• Date: Sunday, September 27, 2026
• Approx. Time: 3:20 AM ET/12:20AM PT
• Tournament: ATP Chengdu, China Men's Singles 2026
• Round: Quarterfinals

All dates and times mentioned in this article are United States Eastern Time unless otherwise stated.

Conclusion

We predict Denis Shapovalov, with a 70% win probability, will likely beat Adrian Mannarino at the ATP Chengdu Open tournament.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary Tennis prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.