Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs. Rafael Jodar prediction, odds, picks for ATP Shanghai Masters 2026

Using innovative machine learning and statistical analysis, we have re-simulated the outcome of Sunday's Davidovich Fokina-Jodar men's singles match, forming part of our tennis predictions coverage.

Our independent predictive model currently gives Jodar a 51% chance of defeating Davidovich Fokina at the ATP Shanghai Masters tournament. Additionally, both Davidovich Fokina and Jodar have an equal 50-50 chance of winning the first set. The simulations also show Davidovich Fokina (+1.5) has a 53% chance of covering the games spread, while the under 23.5 games has a 56% chance of hitting, according to our model.

Latest betting odds

We have sourced the most up-to-date betting odds in America for this match, which are listed here:

• Moneyline: Rafael Jodar -133, Alejandro Davidovich Fokina +120
• First Set: Davidovich Fokina +110, Jodar -139

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Moneyline: Davidovich Fokina @ +120 via DraftKings
• First Set: Jodar @ -130 via DraftKings

According to our best tennis bets, the top play to make on this match is Alejandro Davidovich Fokina to win.

Although Davidovich Fokina is less than likely to win, he provides the best value at the current available odds.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Game info & first serve details

The ATP Shanghai Masters match between Alejandro Davidovich Fokina and Rafael Jodar is scheduled to commence on Sunday at 4:30 AM ET.

• Who: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs. Rafael Jodar
• Date: Sunday, October 18, 2026
• Approx. Time: 4:30 AM ET/1:30AM PT
• Tournament: ATP Shanghai, China Men's Singles 2026
• Round: Final

All dates and times in this article are United States Eastern Time unless otherwise stated.

Conclusion

We predict Rafael Jodar, with a 51% win probability, will likely beat Alejandro Davidovich Fokina at the ATP Shanghai Masters tournament.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary Tennis prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.