Alex Eala's DC Open run: How much you could have won betting on her in each match

Alex Eala stunned the tennis world with one of the most improbable title runs of the 2026 WTA season, and Dimers' tennis predictions tagged a value bet in almost every match along her journey.

The 21-year-old Filipina came into the DC Open ranked No. 28 in the world and left as the tournament champion, having beaten the No. 1, No. 2, and No. 3 seeds back-to-back-to-back on her way to the trophy.

It's the first WTA Tour singles title of her career, and it made her the first player from the Philippines to ever win a WTA event.

What makes Eala's DC Open run even more remarkable from a betting standpoint is that Eala was an underdog in four of her five matches, and according to Dimers' predictive model, she wasn't just a live underdog in each of them; she was the best bet to make in all of them.

Dimers Pro flagged Eala's moneyline as the recommended play in all four matches where she started as the underdog, identifying that the sportsbooks' odds didn't fully account for her chances of winning, even if they were hesitant to price her as a longshot.

The data behind every match of Alex Eala's run at the DC Open

Round of 32: Alex Eala vs. Zheng Qinwen

Dimers gave Eala a 45% chance to win her opening match, translating to fair odds of +122, the same price found on the books against the Olympic gold medalist. Eala dropped the first set before rallying to win the final two and open her campaign with an upset.

Round of 16: Alex Eala vs. Leylah Fernandez

This is the one match where Eala wasn't an underdog. Dimers had her favored at 51%, and since she was already being priced as a -122 favorite by sportsbooks, the market and the model were essentially in agreement. Eala won in straight sets regardless, dethroning the defending champion, Leylah Fernandez.

Quarterfinals: Alex Eala vs. Elina Svitolina (No. 2 seed)

Down to just eight players left, Dimers projected a 43.2% win probability for Eala, pricing fair odds at +133, again aligned with the sportsbooks and showing Elina Svitolina was favored at the wrong number. The model also called the under on 21.5 total games, a bet that cashed thanks to Eala's straight-sets win over the world No. 10.

Semifinals: Alex Eala vs. Naomi Osaka (No. 3 seed)

The lowest win probability for Eala in the tournament,  with Dimers giving Eala a 42.8% chance at +136 fair odds against the four-time Grand Slam champion. Eala again won in straight sets to reach her first WTA 500 final.

Final: Alex Eala vs. Jessica Pegula (No. 1 seed)

The biggest number of the tournament: Dimers had Eala at 43.2% to win at +154 odds, marking the largest edge the model found in any of her matches due to her longest odds in the tournament, with a 2.7% value gap between the model's fair price and the market. Eala fell behind in the first set before storming back to win the title, sealing her improbable run against the tournament's top seed.

Dimers' betting edge on Alex Eala in the DC Open final was 2.7%.

How much you would have won betting on Alex Eala at the DC Open

Using a flat stake of $100, here's how much a bettor would have won by placing a bet on Alex Eala to win each match of the DC Open:

Bet $100 on Eala in all five matches and you'd have wagered $500 total and cashed every single ticket for a combined profit of roughly $627, turning that $500 into about $1,127.

But what if you let it ride, rolling over the winnings from each Eala victory into the next?

• Start: $100
• After Zheng Qinwen (+122): $222.00
• After Leylah Fernandez (-122): $403.97
• After Svitolina (+133): $941.25
• After Osaka (+136): $2,221.35
• After Pegula (+154): $5,642.23

A $100 bet, rolled through Dimers' four recommended underdog plays on Eala, turns into roughly $5,642, a profit of about $5,500 off the initial $100 bet.

Alex Eala ranking now

The win is worth plenty outside the betting world, too.

Alex Eala's prize money from the title comes out to $252,000 of the tournament's $1.64 million WTA purse, by far the biggest payday of her career. The title also comes with 500 ranking points, enough to push Alex Eala's ranking up eight spots, from No. 28 to a new career-high of No. 20 in the world.

As for Eala's next tournament, she's already turned her attention to the WTA 1000 Canadian Open in Toronto, where she's currently favored at 81.9% by the Dimers model over Alycia Parks in her opening match.