Alex Molcan vs. Karen Khachanov prediction, odds, picks for ATP China Open 2026

Using trusted machine learning and statistical analysis, we have re-simulated the result of Friday's Molcan-Khachanov men's singles match, forming part of our tennis predictions coverage.

Our independent predictive model gives Khachanov a 78% chance of defeating Molcan at the ATP China Open tournament. Additionally, Khachanov has a 72% chance of winning the first set. The simulations also show Molcan (+4.5) has a 53% chance of covering the games spread, while the under 22.5 games has a 59% chance of hitting, according to our model.

Latest betting odds

We have sourced the most up-to-date betting odds in America for this match, which are listed here:

• Moneyline: Karen Khachanov -394, Alex Molcan +333
• First Set: Molcan +250, Khachanov -333

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Moneyline: Molcan @ +333 via DraftKings
• First Set: Khachanov @ -150 via DraftKings

According to our best tennis bets, the top play to make on this match is over 22.5 total games.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Game info & first serve details

The ATP China Open match between Alex Molcan and Karen Khachanov is scheduled to start on Friday at 1:00 AM ET.

• Who: Alex Molcan vs. Karen Khachanov
• Date: Friday, October 2, 2026
• Approx. Time: 1:00 AM ET/10:00PM PT
• Tournament: ATP Beijing, China Men's Singles 2026
• Round: Round of 16

All dates and times in this article are United States Eastern Time unless otherwise stated.

Conclusion

We predict Karen Khachanov, with a 78% win probability, will likely beat Alex Molcan at the ATP China Open tournament.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary Tennis prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.