Daniil Medvedev vs. Flavio Cobolli prediction, odds, picks for ATP World Tour Finals 2026

Using innovative machine learning and data analysis, we have re-simulated the result of Monday's Medvedev-Cobolli men's singles match, forming part of our tennis predictions coverage.

Our leading predictive model gives Medvedev a 78% chance of beating Cobolli at the ATP World Tour Finals 2026 tournament. Additionally, Medvedev has a 74% chance of winning the first set. The simulations also show Medvedev (-3.5) has a 53% chance of covering the games spread, while the under 22.5 games has a 56% chance of hitting, according to our model.

Latest betting odds

We have researched the most up-to-date betting odds in America for this match, which are listed here:

• Moneyline: Flavio Cobolli +300, Daniil Medvedev -319
• First Set: Medvedev -278, Cobolli +220

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our probabilities against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Moneyline: Medvedev @ -319 via DraftKings
• First Set: Cobolli @ -115 via DraftKings

According to our tennis best bets, the top play to make on this match is Daniil Medvedev to win the first set.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Game info & first serve details

The ATP World Tour Finals 2026 match between Daniil Medvedev and Flavio Cobolli is scheduled to begin on Monday at 2:30 PM ET.

• Who: Daniil Medvedev vs. Flavio Cobolli
• Date: Monday, November 16, 2026
• Approx. Time: 2:30 PM ET/11:30 AM PT
• Tournament: ATP World Tour Finals Men's Singles 2026
• Round: 1

All dates and times in this article are United States Eastern Time unless otherwise noted.

Conclusion

We predict Daniil Medvedev, with a 78% win probability, will likely beat Flavio Cobolli at the ATP World Tour Finals 2026 tournament.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary tennis prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.