Elise Mertens vs. Naomi Osaka prediction, odds, picks for WTA Toronto 2026

Elise Mertens will take on Naomi Osaka in the round of 32 at the WTA Toronto event on Friday.

Dimers' proven tennis model projects Naomi Osaka as the most likely winner in this Mertens vs. Osaka prediction.

This article offers a closer look at Friday's match, including best bets and picks, backed by the same predictive analytics that recently spotted value throughout Alex Eala's DC Open run.

Mertens vs. Osaka prediction: Who will win and advance to the round of 16?

Using innovative machine learning and data, we have simulated the result of Friday's Mertens-Osaka women's singles match, forming part of our tennis predictions coverage.

Our independent predictive model currently gives Osaka a 66% chance of beating Mertens at the WTA Toronto tournament.

Elise Mertens vs. Naomi Osaka odds

We have sourced the most up-to-date betting odds in America for this match, which are listed here:

• Moneyline: Mertens @ +215 via DraftKings
• First Set: Osaka @ -125 via DraftKings

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Mertens vs. Osaka picks and best bet

After matching our probabilities against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Moneyline: Mertens @ +215 via DraftKings
• First Set: Osaka @ -125 via DraftKings According to our tennis best bets, the top play to make on this match is Elise Mertens to win.

Although Mertens is less than likely to win, she provides the best value at the current available odds.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.

Mertens vs. Osaka updates and essential details

The WTA Toronto match between Elise Mertens and Naomi Osaka is scheduled to begin on Friday at 6:10 PM ET.

• Who: Elise Mertens vs. Naomi Osaka
• Date: Friday, August 7, 2026
• Approx. Time: 6:10 PM ET/3:10PM PT
• Tournament: WTA Toronto, Canada Women's Singles 2026
• Round: Round of 32

All dates and times mentioned in this article are United States Eastern Time unless otherwise stated.

Conclusion

We predict Naomi Osaka, with a 66% win probability, will likely beat Elise Mertens at the WTA Toronto tournament.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.