Felix Auger-Aliassime vs. Karen Khachanov prediction, odds, picks for US Open 2026

Felix Auger-Aliassime and Karen Khachanov will meet in the second round of the US Open 2026 on Thursday.

Dimers' advanced tennis model projects Felix Auger-Aliassime as the most likely winner in this Auger-Aliassime vs. Khachanov prediction.

This article offers a closer look at Thursday's match, including best bets and picks.

Auger-Aliassime vs. Khachanov prediction and odds

Using innovative machine learning and data, we have simulated the result of Thursday's Auger-Aliassime-Khachanov men's singles match, forming part of our tennis predictions coverage.

Our independent predictive model gives Auger-Aliassime a 74% chance of beating Khachanov in the US Open 2026.

Additionally, Auger-Aliassime has a 70% chance of winning the first set. The simulations also show Auger-Aliassime (-4.5) has a 53% chance of covering the games spread, while the under 39.5 games has a 58% chance of hitting, according to our model.

Latest betting odds

We have researched the most up-to-date betting odds in America for this match, which are listed here:

• Moneyline: Karen Khachanov +240, Felix Auger-Aliassime -295
• First Set: Auger-Aliassime -227, Khachanov +175

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Moneyline: Auger-Aliassime @ -295 via DraftKings
• First Set: Khachanov @ -111 via DraftKings

According to our tennis best bets, the top play to make on this match is Felix Auger-Aliassime to win the first set.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Game info & first serve details

The US Open 2026 match between Felix Auger-Aliassime and Karen Khachanov is scheduled to start on Thursday at 11:00 AM ET.

• Who: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs. Karen Khachanov
• Date: Thursday, September 3, 2026
• Approx. Time: 11:00 AM ET/8:00AM PT
• Tournament: US Open Men's Singles 2026
• Round: Second round

All dates and times mentioned in this article are United States Eastern Time unless otherwise noted.

Conclusion

We predict Felix Auger-Aliassime, with a 74% win probability, will likely beat Karen Khachanov at the US Open 2026.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.