Iga Swiatek vs. Marie Bouzkova prediction, odds, picks for US Open 2026

Iga Swiatek and Marie Bouzkova will meet in the third round of the US Open 2026 on Saturday.

Dimers' proven tennis model projects Iga Swiatek as the most likely winner in this Swiatek vs. Bouzkova prediction.

This article offers an expanded analysis of Saturday's match, including best bets and picks.

Swiatek vs. Bouzkova prediction and odds

Using innovative machine learning and statistical analysis, we have simulated the result of Saturday's Swiatek-Bouzkova women's singles match, forming part of our tennis predictions coverage.

Our leading predictive model currently gives Swiatek an 83% chance of beating Bouzkova in the US Open 2026.

Additionally, Swiatek has a 77% chance of winning the first set. The simulations also show Bouzkova (+5.5) has a 53% chance of covering the games spread, while the over 19.5 games has a 54% chance of hitting, according to our model.

Latest betting odds

We have sourced the most up-to-date betting odds in America for this match, which are listed here:

• Moneyline: Marie Bouzkova +520, Iga Swiatek -649
• First Set: Swiatek -400, Bouzkova +300

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Moneyline: Bouzkova @ +520 via DraftKings
• First Set: Bouzkova @ -115 via DraftKings

According to our tennis best bets, the top play to make on this match is over 19.5 total games.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Game info & first serve details

The US Open 2026 match between Iga Swiatek and Marie Bouzkova is scheduled to begin on Saturday at 1:40 PM ET.

• Who: Iga Swiatek vs. Marie Bouzkova
• Date: Saturday, September 5, 2026
• Approx. Time: 1:40 PM ET/10:40AM PT
• Tournament: US Open Women's Singles 2026
• Round: Third round

All dates and times mentioned in this article are United States Eastern Time unless otherwise noted.

Conclusion

We predict Iga Swiatek, with an 83% win probability, will likely beat Marie Bouzkova at the US Open 2026.

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