Jazmin Ortenzi vs. Paula Badosa prediction, odds, picks for WTA Sao Paulo 2026

Jazmin Ortenzi will face Paula Badosa in the round of 16 at the WTA Sao Paulo event on Thursday.

Dimers' proven tennis model projects Paula Badosa as the most likely winner in this Ortenzi vs. Badosa prediction.

This article offers an expanded analysis of Thursday's match, including best bets and picks.

Ortenzi vs. Badosa prediction and odds

Using trusted machine learning and data analysis, we have re-simulated the outcome of Thursday's Ortenzi-Badosa women's singles match, forming part of our tennis predictions coverage.

Our famous predictive model currently gives Badosa a 92% chance of beating Ortenzi at the WTA Sao Paulo tournament. Additionally, Badosa has an 86% chance of winning the first set. The simulations also show Badosa (-6.5) has a 53% chance of covering the games spread, while the under 18.5 games has a 57% chance of hitting, according to our model.

Latest betting odds

We have sourced the most up-to-date betting odds in America for this match, which are listed here:

• Moneyline: Paula Badosa -1471, Jazmin Ortenzi +1200
• First Set: Ortenzi +600, Badosa -1000

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Moneyline: Ortenzi @ +1200 via DraftKings
• First Set: Badosa @ -150 via DraftKings

According to our tennis best bets, the top play to make on this match is Jazmin Ortenzi to win.

Although Ortenzi is less than likely to win, she provides the best value at the current available odds.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Game info & first serve details

The WTA Sao Paulo match between Jazmin Ortenzi and Paula Badosa is scheduled to begin on Thursday at 1:30 PM ET.

• Who: Jazmin Ortenzi vs. Paula Badosa
• Date: Thursday, September 17, 2026
• Approx. Time: 1:30 PM ET/10:30AM PT
• Tournament: WTA Sao Paulo, Brazil Women's, Singles 2026
• Round: Round of 16

All dates and times in this article are United States Eastern Time unless otherwise noted.

Conclusion

We predict Paula Badosa, with a 92% win probability, will likely beat Jazmin Ortenzi at the WTA Sao Paulo tournament.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary Tennis prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.