Lorenzo Sonego vs. Alejandro Tabilo prediction, odds, picks for ATP Stockholm Open 2026

Using innovative machine learning and statistical analysis, we have re-simulated the result of Wednesday's Sonego-Tabilo men's singles match, forming part of our tennis predictions coverage.

Our independent predictive model gives Sonego a 58% chance of beating Tabilo at the ATP Stockholm Open tournament. Additionally, Sonego has a 57% chance of winning the first set. The simulations also show Sonego (-1.5) has a 53% chance of covering the games spread, while the under 24.5 games has a 56% chance of hitting, according to our model.

Latest betting odds

We have sourced the most up-to-date betting odds in America for this match, which are listed here:

• Moneyline: Alejandro Tabilo +146, Lorenzo Sonego -154
• First Set: Sonego -152, Tabilo +120

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Moneyline: Tabilo @ +146 via DraftKings
• First Set: Tabilo @ -130 via DraftKings

According to our best tennis bets, the top play to make on this match is Alejandro Tabilo to win.

Although Tabilo is less than likely to win, he provides the best value at the current available odds.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Game info & first serve details

The ATP Stockholm Open match between Lorenzo Sonego and Alejandro Tabilo is scheduled to commence on Wednesday at 7:00 AM ET.

• Who: Lorenzo Sonego vs. Alejandro Tabilo
• Date: Wednesday, November 11, 2026
• Approx. Time: 7:00 AM ET/4:00 AM PT
• Tournament: ATP Stockholm, Sweden Men's Singles 2026
• Round: Round of 16

All dates and times in this article are United States Eastern Time unless otherwise noted.

Conclusion

We predict Lorenzo Sonego, with a 58% win probability, will likely beat Alejandro Tabilo at the ATP Stockholm Open tournament.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary tennis prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.