Martin Damm vs. Shintaro Mochizuki prediction, odds, picks for ATP Chengdu Open 2026

Using innovative machine learning and data, we have re-simulated the result of Thursday's Damm-Mochizuki men's singles match, forming part of our tennis predictions coverage.

Our leading predictive model currently gives Damm a 61% chance of defeating Mochizuki at the ATP Chengdu Open tournament. Additionally, Damm has a 60% chance of winning the first set. The simulations also show Mochizuki (+3.5) has a 53% chance of covering the games spread, while the under 23.5 games has a 57% chance of hitting, according to our model.

Latest betting odds

We have sourced the most up-to-date betting odds in America for this match, which are listed here:

• Moneyline: Shintaro Mochizuki +183, Martin Damm -220
• First Set: Damm -175, Mochizuki +137

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our probabilities against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Moneyline: Mochizuki @ +183 via DraftKings
• First Set: Mochizuki @ -140 via DraftKings

According to our best tennis bets, the top play to make on this match is Shintaro Mochizuki to win.

Although Mochizuki is less than likely to win, he provides the best value at the current available odds.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Game info & first serve details

The ATP Chengdu Open match between Martin Damm and Shintaro Mochizuki is scheduled to commence on Thursday at 3:20 AM ET.

• Who: Martin Damm vs. Shintaro Mochizuki
• Date: Thursday, September 24, 2026
• Approx. Time: 3:20 AM ET/12:20AM PT
• Tournament: ATP Chengdu, China Men's Singles 2026
• Round: Round of 32

All dates and times in this article are United States Eastern Time unless otherwise noted.

Conclusion

We predict Martin Damm, with a 61% win probability, will likely beat Shintaro Mochizuki at the ATP Chengdu Open tournament.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary Tennis prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.