Matteo Arnaldi vs. Lorenzo Musetti prediction, odds, picks for ATP Lyon Open 2026

Using powerful machine learning and data, we have re-simulated the result of Monday's Arnaldi-Musetti men's singles match, forming part of our tennis predictions coverage.

Our independent predictive model currently gives Musetti a 71% chance of defeating Arnaldi at the ATP Lyon Open tournament. Additionally, Musetti has a 66% chance of winning the first set, while the under 22.5 games has a 55% chance of hitting, according to our model.

Latest betting odds

We have sourced the most up-to-date betting odds in America for this match, which are listed here:

• Moneyline: Lorenzo Musetti -268, Matteo Arnaldi +225
• First Set: Arnaldi +175, Musetti -227

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Moneyline: Musetti @ -268 via DraftKings
• First Set: Musetti @ -140 via DraftKings

According to our tennis best bets, the top play to make on this match is Lorenzo Musetti to win.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Game info & first serve details

The ATP Lyon Open match between Matteo Arnaldi and Lorenzo Musetti is scheduled to commence on Monday at 5:00 AM ET.

• Who: Matteo Arnaldi vs. Lorenzo Musetti
• Date: Monday, October 19, 2026
• Approx. Time: 5:00 AM ET/2:00AM PT
• Tournament: ATP Lyon, France Men's Singles 2026
• Round: Round of 32

All dates and times in this article are United States Eastern Time unless otherwise noted.

Conclusion

We predict Lorenzo Musetti, with a 71% win probability, will likely beat Matteo Arnaldi at the ATP Lyon Open tournament.

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This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary Tennis prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.