Matteo Berrettini vs. Carlos Alcaraz prediction, odds, picks for ATP Paris Masters 2026

Using innovative machine learning and data, we have re-simulated the outcome of Thursday's Berrettini-Alcaraz men's singles match, forming part of our tennis predictions coverage.

Our leading predictive model gives Alcaraz an 83% chance of defeating Berrettini at the ATP Paris Masters tournament. Additionally, Alcaraz has a 76% chance of winning the first set, while the under 21.5 games has a 55% chance of hitting, according to our model.

Latest betting odds

We have researched the most up-to-date betting odds in America for this match, which are listed here:

• Moneyline: Carlos Alcaraz -610, Matteo Berrettini +500
• First Set: Berrettini +350, Alcaraz -500

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our probabilities against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Moneyline: Berrettini @ +500 via DraftKings
• First Set: Alcaraz @ -115 via DraftKings

According to our best tennis bets, the top play to make on this match is Matteo Berrettini to win the first set.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Game info & first serve details

The ATP Paris Masters match between Matteo Berrettini and Carlos Alcaraz is scheduled to begin on Thursday at 1:00 PM ET.

• Who: Matteo Berrettini vs. Carlos Alcaraz
• Date: Thursday, November 5, 2026
• Approx. Time: 1:00 PM ET/10:00 AM PT
• Tournament: ATP Paris, France Men's Singles 2026
• Round: Round of 16

All dates and times in this article are United States Eastern Time unless otherwise stated.

Conclusion

We predict Carlos Alcaraz, with an 83% win probability, will likely beat Matteo Berrettini at the ATP Paris Masters tournament.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary tennis prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.