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Read Article Montreal Open: Cam Norrie overcomes 0.1% win probability to beat Alex De Minaur
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Written by Nick Slade, Chief Content Officer
Reviewed by Dave Garofolo
Cam Norrie completes an incredible 0.1% win probability comeback to beat Alex De Minaur in Montreal. Read the full match breakdown and live betting recap on Dimers.
According to the Dimers model, Cameron Norrie pulled off one of the most stunning comebacks in recent live tennis predictions memory on Thursday, battling back from the brink of elimination to defeat third seed Alex De Minaur at the National Bank Open in Montreal.
Down 7-5, 5-2 in the second set and facing match point, Norrie stared down almost certain defeat. At that exact moment, live in-play metrics on Dimers calculated De Minaur’s win probability at a staggering 99.9%.
The live betting scenario
Before Norrie mounted his improbable rally, live sportsbooks reflected the near certainty of a De Minaur victory:
- Alex De Minaur: -20000 favorite (99.9% win probability)
- Cam Norrie: +8000 longshot
Tennis bettors who took a Norrie live ticket at +8000 (fair odds would've been +9990) were rewarded with a masterclass in resilience. Norrie saved the match point, engineered a crucial break, and pushed the second set to a high-stakes tiebreak. He dug deep to claim the tiebreak 7-5 (7-5), completely shifting the momentum of the match.
Riding the Momentum to the Round of 16
With De Minaur visibly shaken, Norrie sprinted through the deciding third set 6-1, breaking the Australian three times to cap off an unbelievable victory in nearly three hours.
Norrie now advances to the Round of 16 in Montreal, where he faces France's Arthur Fils. After delivering one of the wildest live betting flips of the season, all eyes will be on whether the Brit can carry this momentum deeper into the tournament.
To give you the most accurate and helpful information, this article has been reviewed and edited by Dave Garofolo through our fact-checking process.
Nick Slade, with nearly two decades of experience, is the Chief Content Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, overseeing content for Dimers. He specializes in soccer, NBA, and NHL betting, leveraging predictive analytics and machine learning to provide accurate betting insights.
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