Nuno Borges vs. Facundo Diaz Acosta prediction, odds, picks for ATP Shanghai Masters 2026

Using powerful machine learning and data, we have re-simulated the outcome of Thursday's Borges-Diaz Acosta men's singles match, forming part of our tennis predictions coverage.

Our independent predictive model gives Borges a 76% chance of winning against Diaz Acosta at the ATP Shanghai Masters tournament. Additionally, Borges has a 71% chance of winning the first set. The simulations also show Borges (-3.5) has a 53% chance of covering the games spread, while the under 22.5 games has a 58% chance of hitting, according to our model.

Latest betting odds

We have researched the most up-to-date betting odds in America for this match, which are listed here:

• Moneyline: Facundo Diaz Acosta +285, Nuno Borges -357
• First Set: Borges -278, Diaz Acosta +220

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Moneyline: Diaz Acosta @ +285 via DraftKings
• First Set: Diaz Acosta @ -140 via DraftKings

According to our tennis best bets, the top play to make on this match is Facundo Diaz Acosta to win the first set.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Game info & first serve details

The ATP Shanghai Masters match between Nuno Borges and Facundo Diaz Acosta is scheduled to commence on Thursday at 12:00 AM ET.

• Who: Nuno Borges vs. Facundo Diaz Acosta
• Date: Thursday, October 8, 2026
• Approx. Time: 12:00 AM ET/9:00PM PT
• Tournament: ATP Shanghai, China Men's Singles 2026
• Round: Round of 128

All dates and times mentioned in this article are United States Eastern Time unless otherwise stated.

Conclusion

We predict Nuno Borges, with a 76% win probability, will likely beat Facundo Diaz Acosta at the ATP Shanghai Masters tournament.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary Tennis prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.