Sho Shimabukuro vs. Hugo Gaston prediction, odds, picks for ATP Hangzhou Open 2026

Using trusted machine learning and data analysis, we have re-simulated the outcome of Thursday's Shimabukuro-Gaston men's singles match, forming part of our tennis predictions coverage.

Our independent predictive model currently gives Gaston a 54% chance of defeating Shimabukuro at the ATP Hangzhou Open tournament. Additionally, Gaston has a 53% chance of winning the first set. The simulations also show Shimabukuro (+1.5) has a 53% chance of covering the games spread, while the under 23.5 games has a 56% chance of hitting, according to our model.

Latest betting odds

We have researched the most up-to-date betting odds in America for this match, which are listed here:

• Moneyline: Hugo Gaston -114, Sho Shimabukuro +100
• First Set: Shimabukuro +100, Gaston -125

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Moneyline: Gaston @ -114 via DraftKings
• First Set: Gaston @ -135 via DraftKings

According to our tennis best bets, the top play to make on this match is Hugo Gaston to win.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Game info & first serve details

The ATP Hangzhou Open match between Sho Shimabukuro and Hugo Gaston is scheduled to commence on Thursday at 1:00 AM ET.

• Who: Sho Shimabukuro vs. Hugo Gaston
• Date: Thursday, September 24, 2026
• Approx. Time: 1:00 AM ET/10:00PM PT
• Tournament: ATP Hangzhou, China Men's Singles 2026
• Round: Round of 32

All dates and times mentioned in this article are United States Eastern Time unless otherwise noted.

Conclusion

We predict Hugo Gaston, with a 54% win probability, will likely beat Sho Shimabukuro at the ATP Hangzhou Open tournament.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary Tennis prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.