Tennis bets today: 10 picks for Wednesday ft. Fritz vs. Hijikata [10/28/2026]

ATP Swiss Indoors: Taylor Fritz -4.5 (+110)

• Edge: 9.7%
• Probability: 57.4%
• Matchup: Taylor Fritz vs. Rinky Hijikata (1:00PM ET)

Our model has identified value on Taylor Fritz -4.5 at +110 odds in their matchup at ATP Swiss Indoors. A 57.4% probability produces an edge of 9.7%, making this the strongest play for today's tennis slate.

ATP Swiss Indoors: Rinky Hijikata vs. Taylor Fritz Under 21.5 total games (+105)

• Edge: 6.3%
• Probability: 55.1%
• Matchup: Taylor Fritz vs. Rinky Hijikata (1:00PM ET)

At ATP Swiss Indoors, Taylor Fritz vs. Rinky Hijikata under 21.5 total games carries a 6.3% edge and a probability of 55.1% at +105 odds, according to our model.

ATP Swiss Indoors: Novak Djokovic -2.5 (-140)

• Edge: 6.0%
• Probability: 64.4%
• Matchup: Novak Djokovic vs. Ugo Humbert (10:10AM ET)

Novak Djokovic -2.5 vs. Ugo Humbert at -140 odds shows a 6.0% edge, supported by a 64.4% probability in simulations of the ATP Swiss Indoors match.

ATP Swiss Indoors: Denis Shapovalov -3.5 (+100)

• Edge: 5.3%
• Probability: 55.3%
• Matchup: Remy Bertola vs. Denis Shapovalov (8:20AM ET)

A 5.3% edge and 55.3% probability makes Denis Shapovalov -3.5 vs. Remy Bertola a value play in the Remy Bertola vs. Denis Shapovalov matchup, per our model.

ATP Swiss Indoors: Holger Rune vs. Hubert Hurkacz Under 25.5 total games (-125)

• Edge: 4.5%
• Probability: 60.1%
• Matchup: Hubert Hurkacz vs. Holger Rune (2:10PM ET)

Holger Rune vs. Hubert Hurkacz Under 25.5 total games at -125 presents a 4.5% edge, with simulations resulting in a probability of 60.1%.

ATP Swiss Indoors: Denis Shapovalov vs. Remy Bertola Under 22.5 total games (-110)

• Edge: 4.3%
• Probability: 56.7%
• Matchup: Remy Bertola vs. Denis Shapovalov (8:20AM ET)

Our model finds value on Under 22.5 total games in Remy Bertola vs. Denis Shapovalov at -110 at ATP Brisbane, supported by an edge of 4.3%.

ATP Vienna Open: Tallon Griekspoor ML (+185)

• Edge: 3.6%
• Probability: 38.7%
• Matchup: Tallon Griekspoor vs. Brandon Nakashima (8:30AM ET)

Our model has uncovered value on Brandon Nakashima-Tallon Griekspoor to finish as a tie after 90 minutes at +185. A 38.7% probability produces a 3.6% edge, making this a strong play for today's tennis action.

ATP Vienna Open: Brandon Nakashima vs. Tallon Griekspoor Under 25.5 total games (-120)

• Edge: 3.0%
• Probability: 57.6%
• Matchup: Tallon Griekspoor vs. Brandon Nakashima (8:30AM ET)

A 3.0% edge on a 57.6% probability makes Under 25.5 total games at -120a solid value play in this ATP Vienna Open matchup.

ATP Vienna Open: Daniel Merida ML (+300)

• Edge: 2.6%
• Probability: 27.6%
• Matchup: Daniel Merida vs. Daniil Medvedev (8:30AM ET)

Our model projects value on Daniel Merida to win at +300. A 27.6% probability produces a 2.6% edge, making Daniel Merida the favorable ML play in today's ATP Vienna Open matchup.

ATP Swiss Indoors: Casper Ruud vs. Nuno Borges Under 24.5 total games (-130)

• Edge: 2.3%
• Probability: 58.8%
• Matchup: Nuno Borges vs. Casper Ruud (9:00AM ET)

Rounding out our top 10 bets, Nuno Borges vs. Casper Ruud Under 24.5 total games at -130 shows a 58.8% probability and a 2.3% edge.

Tennis best bets summary: Wednesday, 10/28/2026

As of 7:32AM ET, here are our top tennis bets by edge recommended by our model:

List of upcoming tennis matches to bet on now

• ATP Basel: Denis Shapovalov vs. Remy Bertola (8:20AM ET, Wednesday)
• ATP Vienna: Daniil Medvedev vs. Daniel Merida (8:30AM ET, Wednesday)
• ATP Vienna: Brandon Nakashima vs. Tallon Griekspoor (8:30AM ET, Wednesday)
• ATP Basel: Casper Ruud vs. Nuno Borges (9:00AM ET, Wednesday)
• ATP Vienna: Frances Tiafoe vs. Lorenzo Musetti (9:40AM ET, Wednesday)
• ATP Basel: Ugo Humbert vs. Novak Djokovic (10:10AM ET, Wednesday)
• ATP Vienna: Adrian Mannarino vs. Jakub Mensik (10:50AM ET, Wednesday)
• ATP Vienna: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs. Jurij Rodionov (12:30PM ET, Wednesday)
• ATP Basel: Rinky Hijikata vs. Taylor Fritz (1:00PM ET, Wednesday)
• ATP Basel: Holger Rune vs. Hubert Hurkacz (2:10PM ET, Wednesday)

Conclusion

Our tennis best bets are locked and loaded for October 28, 2026, featuring plays such as Taylor Fritz -4.5 vs. Rinky Hijikata and under 21.5 total games also in the Taylor Fritz vs. Rinky Hijikata matchup. Powered by advanced simulations, these picks are here to boost your betting game.

Our predictions are grounded in current data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice, head to our Responsible Gambling hub.

All odds and probabilities in this article are correct and accurate at the time of publication.