Penn State vs. Dayton prediction, odds, pick for Nov. 9, 2026

Dayton is favored to beat Penn State at UD Arena on Monday (7:00 PM ET), according to Dimers' women's basketball model.

Our Penn State vs. Dayton prediction gives the Nittany Lions a 57.5% chance of winning, but the latest odds suggest there's betting value on Penn State as the underdog.

Penn State vs. Dayton key predictions

• Predicted score: Dayton 77-75 Penn State
• Dayton win probability: 57.5%
• Penn State win probability: 42.5%
• Penn State +6.5 spread: 56.4% cover probability
• Over 144.5 points: 58.0% probability

Our women's basketball predictions start with projected final scores for both teams, based on each team's recent and long-term efficiency at both ends of the floor, adjusted for the matchup.

We pair those projections with historical scoring trends to calculate win, spread, and total probabilities, then compare them with current odds to find betting value.

Penn State vs. Dayton odds

Here are the best available odds across the moneyline, spread, and total points markets we track. Caesars Sportsbook has the best price in every market for this game.

• Penn State moneyline: +200 (Caesars Sportsbook)
• Dayton moneyline: -250 (Caesars Sportsbook)
• Penn State +6.5: -115 (Caesars Sportsbook)
• Dayton -6.5: -115 (Caesars Sportsbook)
• Over 144.5 points: -115 (Caesars Sportsbook)
• Under 144.5 points: -115 (Caesars Sportsbook)

Odds are subject to change and may vary by location.

Penn State vs. Dayton pick: Penn State ML (+200)

Our model makes Dayton the likelier winner, but our best value bet is the Flyers moneyline at +200 on Caesars Sportsbook.

Those odds give Penn State an implied win probability of 33.3%, while our model puts it at 42.5%.

That's a 9.2% edge, the largest across the moneyline, spread, and total points markets for this game.

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Penn State vs. Dayton game details

• Matchup: Penn State Nittany Lions vs. Dayton Flyers
• Date: Monday, November 9, 2026
• Time: 7:00 PM ET
• Venue: UD Arena
• Tournament details: 2026 NBA Cup

About this prediction

This preview uses predictions from our women's basketball models, presented through a template written by our editorial team. Matchup details fill in automatically.

Predictions are estimates, not guarantees, and can change as new information comes in, such as injury news or lineup changes. Learn how our predictions work.

Dimers encourages responsible gambling.