Paraguay vs. Australia prediction, odds, props, World Cup 2026 picks [Group Stage]

Paraguay will square off with Australia in Group D of the World Cup 2026 at Levi's Stadium on Thursday, beginning at 10:00 PM ET.

Based on updated simulation results, Dimers' advanced World Cup 2026 model predicts Paraguay as the most likely winner of the Paraguay vs. Australia game.

Part of our comprehensive World Cup coverage, this article offers a closer look at Thursday's match, including best bets and picks.

Paraguay vs. Australia prediction: Who will win?

Using trusted machine learning and data, we have simulated the outcome of Thursday's World Cup 2026 matchup between Paraguay and Australia, forming part of our World Cup 2026 predictions coverage.

Our famous predictive model suggests a 38.0% chance of Paraguay winning, a 29.3% chance for Australia, and a 32.6% chance of a draw.

Additionally, the over/under total of 1.5 goals has a 54.0% chance of going over, with a 64.8% probability of at least one team keeping a clean sheet. In the win to nil market, Paraguay holds a 27.5% probability to win without conceding, with Australia given a 21.0% chance.

For bettors looking to cover multiple possibilities, the most likely double chance result is Paraguay to win or draw at 70.7%.

Australia vs. Paraguay odds

We have sourced the best World Cup 2026 odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

Moneyline

Paraguay	Australia	Draw
+155	+340	+140

Total Goals

Over 1.5	Under 1.5
-115	+104

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Paraguay vs. Australia picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Moneyline: Australia @ +340 via FanDuel
• Total Goals: Over 1.5 @ -115 via BetMGM
• Win to Nil: Australia @ +400 via BetMGM
• Both Teams To Score: No @ -176 via FanDuel

According to our World Cup 2026 best bets, the top play to make on this game is Australia to win.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.

Although they are not the most likely winner of the match, the edge provided on Australia's odds provide the best value right now.

Paraguay vs. Australia: Correct score and BTTS predictions

Here are the top three most likely final scores according to our model, with a 0-0 draw being the most probable:

Final Score	Probability
Paraguay 0-0 Australia	16.4%
Paraguay 1-0 Australia	16.1%
Paraguay 0-1 Australia	13.5%

When it comes to the both teams to score (BTTS) market, we project a 35.2% chance of both sides finding the net and a 64.8% chance that at least one doesn’t.

These predictions are based on each team's average score according to our machine learning model, meaning the most likely correct score can differ from our predicted winner.

Paraguay vs. Australia player props: Anytime goal scorer predictions

Our World Cup 2026 player projections for Thursday highlight the top candidates to score a goal in Paraguay-Australia:

Paraguay

• Gabriel Avalos: 17.7% probability
• Julio Enciso: 15.9% probability
• Diego Gomez: 11.0% probability
• Matias Galarza: 11.0% probability
• Gustavo Gomez: 6.0% probability

Australia

• Nestory Irankunda: 14.2% probability
• Cristian Volpato: 9.5% probability
• Conor Metcalfe: 8.0% probability
• Jackson Irvine: 6.6% probability
• Jordan Bos: 6.1% probability

Paraguay vs. Australia game-day updates and essential details

Thursday's FIFA World Cup matchup between Paraguay and Australia at Levi's Stadium is scheduled to commence at 10:00 PM ET.

• Who: Paraguay vs. Australia
• Date: Thursday, June 25, 2026
• Time: 10:00 PM ET/7:00PM PT
• Venue: Levi's Stadium

All dates and times in this article are United States Eastern Time unless otherwise stated.

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Conclusion

According to our computer model, Paraguay has a 38.0% win probability on Thursday, Australia has a 29.3% win probability, and there is a 32.6% chance that the game will end in a draw.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.