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Read Article New Zealand vs. Belgium prediction, odds, props, World Cup 2026 picks [Group Stage]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Ryan Leaver, Senior Sports and Betting Editor
Get New Zealand vs Belgium predictions for World Cup 2026 Friday.
World Cup 2026 action continues on Friday at 11:00 PM ET as Belgium takes on New Zealand in Group G at BC Place.
Based on updated simulations, Dimers' proven World Cup 2026 model predicts Belgium as the most likely winner of the New Zealand vs. Belgium game.
Part of our comprehensive World Cup coverage, this article offers a closer look at Friday's match, including best bets and picks.
New Zealand vs. Belgium prediction: Who will win?
Using innovative machine learning and data, we have simulated the outcome of Friday's World Cup 2026 matchup between New Zealand and Belgium, forming part of our World Cup 2026 predictions coverage.
Our famous predictive model suggests a 6.3% chance of New Zealand winning, an 81.7% chance for Belgium, and a 12.1% chance of a draw.
Additionally, the 3.5-goal over/under has a 53.0% chance of staying under, with a 53.3% probability of at least one team keeping a clean sheet. In the win to nil market, Belgium holds a 47.4% probability to win without conceding, with New Zealand at 2.9%.
For bettors looking to cover multiple outcomes, the most likely double chance result is Belgium to win or draw at 93.7%.
Belgium vs. New Zealand odds
We have researched the best World Cup 2026 odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
Moneyline
| New Zealand | Belgium | Draw |
|---|---|---|
| +1300 | -550 | +750 |
Total Goals
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
|---|---|
| -140 | +122 |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
New Zealand vs. Belgium picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
- Moneyline: Belgium @ +750 via BetMGM
- Total Goals: Under 3.5 @ +122 via FanDuel
- Win to Nil: New Zealand @ +1850 via BetMGM
- Double Chance: New Zealand or Draw @ +430 via FanDuel
- Both Teams To Score: No @ +100 via DraftKings
According to our World Cup 2026 best bets, the top play to make on this game is Under 3.5 total goals.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
New Zealand vs. Belgium: Correct score and BTTS predictions
Here are the top three most likely final scores according to our model, with a 2-0 Belgium win being the most probable:
| Final Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| New Zealand 0-2 Belgium | 11.8% |
| New Zealand 0-3 Belgium | 11.2% |
| New Zealand 0-1 Belgium | 8.3% |
When it comes to the both teams to score (BTTS) market, we project a 46.7% chance of both New Zealand and Belgium finding the net and a 53.3% chance that at least one doesn’t.
New Zealand vs. Belgium player props: Anytime goal scorer predictions
Our World Cup 2026 player projections for Friday highlight the top candidates to score a goal in New Zealand-Belgium:
New Zealand
- Chris Wood: 18.0% probability
- Elijah Just: 11.4% probability
- Sarpreet Singh: 10.2% probability
- Ryan Thomas: 7.0% probability
- Marko Stamenic: 5.4% probability
Belgium
- Charles De Ketelaere: 38.3% probability
- Kevin De Bruyne: 31.7% probability
- Leandro Trossard: 31.1% probability
- Jeremy Doku: 30.1% probability
- Hans Vanaken: 25.9% probability
New Zealand vs. Belgium game-day updates and essential details
Friday's soccer World Cup game between New Zealand and Belgium at BC Place is scheduled to begin at 11:00 PM ET.
- Who: New Zealand vs. Belgium
- Date: Friday, June 26, 2026
- Time: 11:00 PM ET/8:00PM PT
- Venue: BC Place
All dates and times in this article are United States Eastern Time unless otherwise noted.
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Conclusion
According to our computer model, New Zealand has a 6.3% win probability on Friday, Belgium has an 81.7% win probability, and there is a 12.1% chance that the game will end in a draw.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Ryan Leaver uses advanced statistical models and simulations to predict outcomes and provide predictions for the NBA, NFL, college football, college basketball, and soccer. He offers detailed game previews, best bets, props, and futures articles.
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