United States vs. Belgium prediction, odds, props, World Cup 2026 picks [Round of 16]

United States will take on Belgium in the round of 16 of the World Cup 2026 at Lumen Field on Monday, starting at 8:00 PM ET.

Based on the latest simulations, Dimers' advanced World Cup 2026 model projects Belgium as the most likely winner of the United States vs. Belgium game.

This article offers a closer look at Monday's match, including best bets and picks.

United States vs. Belgium prediction: Who will win and advance to the Quarter-Finals?

Using trusted machine learning and data analysis, we have simulated the outcome of Monday's World Cup 2026 matchup between United States and Belgium, forming part of our World Cup 2026 predictions coverage.

Our famous predictive model currently suggests a 37.0% chance of United States winning, a 38.7% chance for Belgium, and a 24.3% chance of a draw.

Additionally, the over/under total of 2.5 goals has a 57.4% chance of going over, with a 60.1% probability that both teams score. In the win to nil market, Belgium holds a 17.9% probability to win without conceding, with United States at 17.0%.

For bettors looking to cover multiple potential outcomes, the most likely double chance result is a win for either United States or Belgium at 75.7%.

Keep in mind that soccer markets are settled at the end of 90 minutes. Unlike NBA betting where overtime counts, extra time won't factor into these odds unless explicitly noted.

Belgium vs. United States odds

We have researched the best World Cup 2026 odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

Moneyline

United States	Belgium	Draw
+155	+190	+225

Total Goals

Over 2.5	Under 2.5
-125	+104

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

United States vs. Belgium picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Moneyline: Belgium @ +190 via FanDuel
• Total Goals: Over 2.5 @ -125 via DraftKings
• Win to Nil: Belgium @ +425 via BetMGM
• Double Chance: United States or Belgium @ -290 via FanDuel
• Both Teams To Score: No @ +150 via FanDuel

According to our best World Cup 2026 bets, the top play to make on this game is Belgium to win.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.

As well as being the most likely winner of the game, the edge provided on Belgium's odds also provide the best value for bettors.

United States vs. Belgium: Correct score and BTTS predictions

Here are the top three most likely final scores according to our model, with a 1-1 draw being the most probable:

Final Score	Probability
United States 1-1 Belgium	11.2%
United States 1-2 Belgium	8.5%
United States 2-1 Belgium	8.3%

When it comes to the both teams to score (BTTS) market, we project a 60.1% chance of both sides finding the net and a 39.9% chance that at least one doesn’t.

These predictions are based on each team's average score according to our machine learning model, meaning the most likely correct score can differ from our predicted winner.

United States vs. Belgium player props: Anytime goal scorer predictions

Our World Cup 2026 player projections for Monday highlight the top candidates to score a goal in United States-Belgium:

United States

• Folarin Balogun: 28.6% probability
• Christian Pulisic: 23.0% probability
• Malik Tillman: 14.1% probability
• Sergino Dest: 11.8% probability
• Weston McKennie: 11.7% probability

Belgium

• Charles De Ketelaere: 21.1% probability
• Leandro Trossard: 19.0% probability
• Dodi Lukebakio: 17.4% probability
• Youri Tielemans: 12.3% probability
• Maxim De Cuyper: 9.3% probability

United States vs. Belgium game-day updates and essential details

Monday's FIFA World Cup matchup between United States and Belgium at Lumen Field is scheduled to begin at 8:00 PM ET.

• Who: United States vs. Belgium
• Date: Monday, July 6, 2026
• Time: 8:00 PM ET/5:00PM PT
• Venue: Lumen Field

All dates and times in this article are United States Eastern Time unless otherwise stated.

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Conclusion

According to our computer model, United States has a 37.0% win probability on Monday, Belgium has a 38.7% win probability, and there is a 24.3% chance that the game will end in a draw.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.