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Read Article Portugal vs. Croatia prediction, odds, props, World Cup 2026 picks [Round of 32]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Ryan Leaver, Senior Sports and Betting Editor
Get Portugal vs Croatia predictions for World Cup 2026 Thursday.
Portugal will face Croatia in the round of 32 of the World Cup 2026 at BMO Field on Thursday, beginning at 7:00 PM ET.
Based on updated simulations, Dimers' proven World Cup 2026 model projects Portugal as the most likely winner of the Portugal vs. Croatia game.
Part of our comprehensive World Cup coverage, this article offers further insights into Thursday's match, including best bets and picks.
Portugal vs. Croatia prediction: Who will win and advance to the Round of 16?
Using innovative machine learning and statistical analysis, we have simulated the result of Thursday's World Cup 2026 game between Portugal and Croatia, forming part of our World Cup 2026 predictions coverage.
Our independent predictive model suggests a 57.3% chance of Portugal winning, a 19.9% chance for Croatia, and a 22.8% chance of a draw.
Additionally, the over/under total of 2.5 goals has a 53.2% chance of going over, with a 52.4% probability that both teams score. In the win to nil market, Portugal holds a 31.5% probability to win without conceding, with Croatia given a 10.0% chance.
For bettors looking to cover multiple potential outcomes, the most likely double chance result is Portugal to win or draw at 80.1%.
A quick reminder: standard World Cup markets apply to 90 minutes of regulation play only, excluding extra time unless stated otherwise. This differs from sports like the NBA, where overtime is typically included.
Croatia vs. Portugal odds
We have sourced the best World Cup 2026 odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
Moneyline
| Portugal | Croatia | Draw |
|---|---|---|
| -145 | +470 | +270 |
Total Goals
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|
| -115 | +110 |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Portugal vs. Croatia picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
- Moneyline: Croatia @ +470 via FanDuel
- Total Goals: Over 2.5 @ -115 via BetMGM
- Win to Nil: Croatia @ +725 via BetMGM
- Double Chance: Portugal or Croatia @ -350 via FanDuel
- Both Teams To Score: No @ +124 via FanDuel
According to our best World Cup 2026 bets, the top play to make on this game is Croatia to win.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Portugal vs. Croatia: Correct score and BTTS predictions
The top three most likely final scores, according to our model, are listed below, with a 1-0 Portugal win being the most probable:
| Final Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Portugal 1-0 Croatia | 11% |
| Portugal 1-1 Croatia | 10.8% |
| Portugal 2-0 Croatia | 10.1% |
When it comes to the both teams to score (BTTS) market, we project a 52.4% chance of both sides finding the net and a 47.6% chance that at least one doesn’t.
Portugal vs. Croatia player props: Anytime goal scorer predictions
Our World Cup 2026 player projections for Thursday highlight the top candidates to score a goal in Portugal-Croatia:
Portugal
- Cristiano Ronaldo: 38.5% probability
- Rafael Leao: 21.4% probability
- Bruno Fernandes: 19.8% probability
- Pedro Neto: 15.7% probability
- Joao Neves: 10.8% probability
Croatia
- Ante Budimir: 16.6% probability
- Nikola Vlasic: 11.0% probability
- Ivan Perisic: 9.9% probability
- Martin Baturina: 9.8% probability
- Luka Modric: 8.5% probability
Portugal vs. Croatia game-day updates and essential details
Thursday's FIFA World Cup game between Portugal and Croatia at BMO Field is scheduled to start at 7:00 PM ET.
- Who: Portugal vs. Croatia
- Date: Thursday, July 2, 2026
- Time: 7:00 PM ET/4:00PM PT
- Venue: BMO Field
All dates and times mentioned in this article are United States Eastern Time unless otherwise stated.
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Conclusion
According to our computer model, Portugal has a 57.3% win probability on Thursday, Croatia has a 19.9% win probability, and there is a 22.8% chance that the game will end in a draw.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Ryan Leaver uses advanced statistical models and simulations to predict outcomes and provide predictions for the NBA, NFL, college football, college basketball, and soccer. He offers detailed game previews, best bets, props, and futures articles.
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